Too high for too long?

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - January 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to December. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

China: Structural and cyclical challenges present opportunities

We discuss some of the structural and cyclical aspects of the Chinese economy and why we currently see attractive investment opportunities in the region.

A building global recovery

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie.

The third lever

Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.

Trump - It may be possible to achieve higher tariffs and a weaker US dollar

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses the implications of trade policy, examining how and why tariffs are expected to play a central role in Trump’s push for US reindustrialisation and a more equitable global trade system.

US election shakes up commodity markets; spotlight on China and trade policies 

While US equity markets reacted favourably, commodity markets remained more cautious. Much hinges on Trump’s stance on international relations – including towards Iran, Russia, China – and its impact on the global economy and, consequently, global commodity prices.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Keep active in a bearish oil market

The prospects for oil appear positive on a five-year view, not least because US shale supply could plateau in the next few years. However, investors will need to be careful in 2025, because demand worries and supply growth add up to a bearish outlook. As portfolio manager Paul Gooden explains, there are still opportunities, but active management will be key.

Macroscope: US yield curve dis-inversion: what does it mean and how to trade it

Alex Holroyd-Jones, portfolio manager in the Multi-Asset team, discusses whether the current US yield curve is a predictor of an upcoming recession or a stronger outlook, and why it should continue steepening.

Bonds back in focus

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen explore the resurgence of bonds as a viable investment class.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

Anatomy of a fall

Sahil Mahtani, Head of Macro Research, discusses how a growth scare in the context of an almighty positioning unwind should not detract from what is still likely to be a soft landing.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Credit spotlight: Structured credit

Analyst Rondeep Barua and Portfolio Specialist Jared Cook explain what structured credit (specifically, the collateralised loan obligation market) is, and consider how credit investors can benefit from its distinct and dynamic behaviour.

Beyond correlations: Real considerations for alternatives

Correlation, or the relationship between two assets, is often seen as the holy grail of investors – when one asset goes up, the other goes down, providing investors with a measure of protection. However, as Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss in this video, a singular focus on correlation can be misguided.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - January 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to December. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

China: Structural and cyclical challenges present opportunities

We discuss some of the structural and cyclical aspects of the Chinese economy and why we currently see attractive investment opportunities in the region.

A building global recovery

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie.

The third lever

Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.

Trump - It may be possible to achieve higher tariffs and a weaker US dollar

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses the implications of trade policy, examining how and why tariffs are expected to play a central role in Trump’s push for US reindustrialisation and a more equitable global trade system.

US election shakes up commodity markets; spotlight on China and trade policies 

While US equity markets reacted favourably, commodity markets remained more cautious. Much hinges on Trump’s stance on international relations – including towards Iran, Russia, China – and its impact on the global economy and, consequently, global commodity prices.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Keep active in a bearish oil market

The prospects for oil appear positive on a five-year view, not least because US shale supply could plateau in the next few years. However, investors will need to be careful in 2025, because demand worries and supply growth add up to a bearish outlook. As portfolio manager Paul Gooden explains, there are still opportunities, but active management will be key.

Macroscope: US yield curve dis-inversion: what does it mean and how to trade it

Alex Holroyd-Jones, portfolio manager in the Multi-Asset team, discusses whether the current US yield curve is a predictor of an upcoming recession or a stronger outlook, and why it should continue steepening.

Bonds back in focus

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen explore the resurgence of bonds as a viable investment class.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

Anatomy of a fall

Sahil Mahtani, Head of Macro Research, discusses how a growth scare in the context of an almighty positioning unwind should not detract from what is still likely to be a soft landing.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Credit spotlight: Structured credit

Analyst Rondeep Barua and Portfolio Specialist Jared Cook explain what structured credit (specifically, the collateralised loan obligation market) is, and consider how credit investors can benefit from its distinct and dynamic behaviour.

Beyond correlations: Real considerations for alternatives

Correlation, or the relationship between two assets, is often seen as the holy grail of investors – when one asset goes up, the other goes down, providing investors with a measure of protection. However, as Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss in this video, a singular focus on correlation can be misguided.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - January 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to December. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

China: Structural and cyclical challenges present opportunities

We discuss some of the structural and cyclical aspects of the Chinese economy and why we currently see attractive investment opportunities in the region.

Too high for too long?

John Stopford

Too high for too long?

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Authored by

John Stopford

Portfolio Manager

Multi-Asset – latest insights

A building global recovery

The third lever

Trump - It may be possible to achieve higher tariffs and a weaker US dollar

US election shakes up commodity markets; spotlight on China and trade policies

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The Big Picture Podcast

US election shakes up commodity markets; spotlight on China and trade policies 