Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
14 Jan 2026
The conference was scheduled at a fortuitous moment, with Venezuela moving to the centre of energy and policy conversations alongside wider questions around oil supply, sanctions, and capital allocation. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and senior industry executives set out how Venezuelan oil and sanctions might evolve, while also addressing longer-term developments across global energy markets.
Sahil and Paul work through what stood out from the conference, linking Venezuela to themes including US power demand and grid constraints, LNG investment, shale productivity, offshore activity, and consolidation, including how markets might be impacted.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.
Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.
US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.
After a lacklustre decade of returns in emerging market equities, reviewing the structural potential for the asset class drove many allocation discussions throughout 2023. But the diversifying potential of EM equities proved a sticking point. Three main objections are often raised and this analysis reviews each in turn.

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