The shrinking upside in the dollar story

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Emerging market volatility shifts lower

After a lacklustre decade of returns in emerging market equities, reviewing the structural potential for the asset class drove many allocation discussions throughout 2023. But the diversifying potential of EM equities proved a sticking point. Three main objections are often raised and this analysis reviews each in turn.

A crisis of global integration

We are arguably living through a fourth systemic crisis. The end result will be a vastly different economy. Understanding the investment implications is what this iteration of our Road to 2030 research is about.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

War in the Gulf

War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.

Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami

Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.

Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group

Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.

Venezuela: scenarios and market implications

Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.

Emerging market’s net issuance drag is easing

A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2025

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

The great rebalancing

A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.

The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump

Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.

Beyond the one-way trade

For years, capital has gravitated to the US.  A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.

Net-zero investing: searching for returns and real-world change

Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Trump unleashes trade policy, shakes markets, adapts the rules, sets a course

Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.

The third lever

Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.

US election: A clear cut result, but what does it mean for the economy?

US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Emerging market volatility shifts lower

After a lacklustre decade of returns in emerging market equities, reviewing the structural potential for the asset class drove many allocation discussions throughout 2023. But the diversifying potential of EM equities proved a sticking point. Three main objections are often raised and this analysis reviews each in turn.

A crisis of global integration

We are arguably living through a fourth systemic crisis. The end result will be a vastly different economy. Understanding the investment implications is what this iteration of our Road to 2030 research is about.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

War in the Gulf

War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.

Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami

Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.

Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group

Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.

Venezuela: scenarios and market implications

Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.

Emerging market’s net issuance drag is easing

A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2025

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

The great rebalancing

A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.

The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump

Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.

Beyond the one-way trade

For years, capital has gravitated to the US.  A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.

Net-zero investing: searching for returns and real-world change

Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Trump unleashes trade policy, shakes markets, adapts the rules, sets a course

Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.

The third lever

Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.

US election: A clear cut result, but what does it mean for the economy?

US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth

Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.

Emerging market volatility shifts lower

After a lacklustre decade of returns in emerging market equities, reviewing the structural potential for the asset class drove many allocation discussions throughout 2023. But the diversifying potential of EM equities proved a sticking point. Three main objections are often raised and this analysis reviews each in turn.

A crisis of global integration

We are arguably living through a fourth systemic crisis. The end result will be a vastly different economy. Understanding the investment implications is what this iteration of our Road to 2030 research is about.

The shrinking upside in the dollar story

Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.

Sahil Mahtani

The fast view

The fast view

Authored by

Sahil Mahtani

Director: Investment Institute

Investment Institute - latest insight

The end of easy globalisation

War in the Gulf

Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami

Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group

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