Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Last week, Ninety One’s Investment Institute published a series of scenarios and market implications arising from the situation in Venezuela. This conversation with Phil Gunson builds on that framework, adding on-the-ground perspective from Caracas to explore how those scenarios may evolve and what to watch next.
This conversation was recorded on Friday 9 January 2026 at 12:45pm UK time.
Summary view (12 minutes)
Highlights from this conversation with Phil Gunson on the ground in Caracas, assessing the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela. The selected parts of this summary view focus on the economic and market-related dimensions, including the outlook for sanctions relief and the implications for Venezuelan sovereign bonds. The full recording is available below the summary.
Full conversation (37 minutes)
In this full discussion, Phil Gunson shares how recent US actions are being interpreted inside Venezuela and why this moment has unfolded now. The conversation examines the practical levers available to the US, the red lines on both sides, and how power is being exercised within the current political system. It then turns to the challenges of political reform and elections, the prospects for sanctions relief and debt restructuring, the range of possible political outcomes, regional implications, and concludes with an assessment of Venezuelan bond market dynamics.
Chapter references for the full conversation - use the navigation in the video player to jump to a chapter:
- Chapter 1: What is the understanding in Venezuela as to why the US has done this and why now?
- Chapter 2: What levers can the US apply to compel the Venezuelan government to work with them?
- Chapter 3: What are the red lines in terms of US demands and the current Venezuelan government?
- Chapter 4: Is there scope to move to free and fair elections with the reforms that need to take place?
- Chapter 5: What are the prospects for sanctions relief opening the door to debt restructuring?
- Chapter 6: What are the probabilities for different outcomes from here?
- Chapter 7: How might the regional implications evolve?
- Chapter 8: What is the outlook for Venezuelan bonds?
More on the International Crisis Group
International Crisis Group is a leading source of independent analysis on global conflict, with on-the-ground presence across more than 70 active and emerging crises. Its insights are relied upon by policymakers and private-sector leaders to understand complex political and security risks. Ninety One has worked closely with Crisis Group for many years and values its independent, locally informed perspective.
If you would like to explore Crisis Group’s work further, you can review their work on Venezuela here, or visit their website for broader coverage of global conflicts.
