19 Oct 2021
50 minutes
In December 2020, China’s Chang’e 5 mission touched down on the moon to collect rock samples. Three weeks later, the lunar module returned to earth carrying a cargo of more than four pounds of samples, the first such mission to be completed in more than forty years. China became the third country after the US and the former Soviet Union to return samples from the moon. This is remarkable progress, but when assessing China’s core mission to achieve independence in technology-based industries, it helps us ask questions such as: despite some clear success stories, why is China still importing around half of the key components needed to build commercial jetliners?
Further understanding the true extent of China’s technological progress was behind our decision to engage Chris Miller, Assistant Professor of Economic History and International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. We collaborated on an assessment of China’s progress developing technological independence. This is not just a discussion about China’s e-commerce or digital economy, but a close look at China’s industrial policy and the government’s efforts to develop new technology companies that can spur future growth and avoid the middle-income trap that has beset many other nations in their economic development. Beijing is placing billions of dollars of (venture capital) bets that state guidance and government subsidies can produce profitable companies with world-class technology to lift economic standards.
Part 1: China’s record is mixed, even by its own standards
by Assistant Professor, Chris Miller
Part 3: The importance of why China is doing this
by Ninety One
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.
Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.
US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.
As China moves from the Year of the Snake into the Year of the Horse, the next animal in the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, investors are asking whether the horse’s association with strength and dynamism will be reflected in how China’s markets are positioned to perform.
China’s equity performance over the past three years has left investors disappointed. However, with the rollout of its most substantial stimulus package in years, it raises the question: should investors reassess their stance on China?
Wenchang Ma and Joanna Yang, Portfolio Managers, sit down to discuss China A shares following a strong start to 2024.
China’s primary property sales remained weak through 2023 and into 2024, especially in lower-tier cities. The success of new property stimulus measures, urban village renewal and affordable housing initiatives depends on execution and buyer sentiment. Read the team’s latest views following a recent research trip across China.
Analyst Yunli Liu returns to his home country to see for himself what business conditions are like and try to separate sentiment from fundamentals.
After a challenging year, Wenchang Ma sees brighter prospects for Chinese equities in 2024, with weak sentiment providing an entry point to invest in some of the world’s most attractive companies.
Strategist Sahil Mahtani argues that a robust Chinese cyclical recovery is still underway.
After a tough year, Wilfred Wee and Alan Siow explain where this leaves valuations, why investors should expect greater clarity on policy, and how China’s authorities have the potential to drive positive and dramatic change.
Chinese equities are volatile but increasing pockets of value have emerged. We believe the asset class is well placed to rally once corporate earnings bottom and the market understands that economic growth remains a priority.
Our China experts discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress and the implications for EM fixed income and equity investors.
Sahil Mahtani and Chris Miller take a look at China’s tech revolution and provide a report card from consumer internet to hard tech.
2021 was used as a “window of opportunity” for Chinese policy makers to address structural imbalances within the Chinese economy. However, with growth now slowing, authorities have pivoted. That opens the door for easing, in our view.
Life in China continues to be hampered by COVID, but a research trip highlights that some green-economy sectors are looking ahead to healthy sales in the new year.
In this Q&A, Varun Laijawalla discuses the opportunities in EM equities, developments in China and ESG in emerging markets.
Wenchang Ma, Portfolio Manager at Ninety One, reflects on the 100 year anniversary of China rise to prominence and discusses the opportunities and concerns felt by investors. Should investors view recent developments in the country as negative or positive signals from a long-term investment perspective?
Most investors are under-allocated to China, certainly relative to its size and influence in the world. Some takeaways from this discussion about investing in what looks set to become the world’s biggest economy.
China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 is a significant step in the fight against climate change. Where are the potential winners of this structural transition?
China’s inclusion in the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index expected to propel the market to another level.
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