The third lever
Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.
Global
Investment Institute
Inside China's tech revolution
Sahil Mahtani and Chris Miller take a look at China’s tech revolution and provide a report card from consumer internet to hard tech.
22 Feb 2022
20 minutes
Sahil Mahtani
Chris Miller
To listen to this and other podcasts, subscribe on Apple Podcast or simply search for ‘Ninety One Big Picture’ on your podcast app of choice.
Investment Institute - latest insights
AI and the return of US equity supply
A shrinking supply of shares has flattered US equity returns for years. The AI issuance boom is putting that into reverse.
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2026
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
The end of easy globalisation
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
War in the Gulf
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
Venezuela: scenarios and market implications
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
Emerging market’s net issuance drag is easing
A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
The great rebalancing
A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.
The shrinking upside in the dollar story
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
Beyond the one-way trade
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
Net-zero investing: searching for returns and real-world change
Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Trump unleashes trade policy, shakes markets, adapts the rules, sets a course
Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.
The third lever
Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.
US election: A clear cut result, but what does it mean for the economy?
US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Important Information
This communication is provided for general information only and should not be construed as advice.
All the information in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. The views are those of the contributor at the time of publication and do not necessarily reflect those of Ninety One.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
All rights reserved. Issued by Ninety One.
For further information on indices, fund ratings, yields, targeted or projected performance returns, back-tested results, model return results, hypothetical performance returns, the investment team, our investment process, and specific portfolio names, please click here.