25 Oct 2023
9 minutes
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Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
As China moves from the Year of the Snake into the Year of the Horse, the next animal in the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, investors are asking whether the horse’s association with strength and dynamism will be reflected in how China’s markets are positioned to perform.
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
After a disorienting 12 months, investors need to recalibrate their perceptions of risk – a ‘Goldilocks’ macro environment is likely to prevail in 2026. But while conditions appear ‘just right’, thoughtful positioning is required within each asset class.
2026 opens with uneven growth, elevated debt and valuations that leave little margin for error. Resilience and precision in positioning will matter more than ever.
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
A more accommodative Fed stance is turning restrictive policy into a tailwind for equities, note Portfolio Manager Alex Holroyd-Jones and Analyst Rebecca Phillips.
Sticky inflation, rising fiscal strains and weak growth are eroding the role of bonds as a portfolio ballast, forcing investors to rethink defensive diversification, according to Sahil Mahtani, Head of Macro Research
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
Alex Holroyd-Jones, Multi Asset Portfolio Manager, discusses the evolving landscape in Europe, as investors seek to diversify away from the US and into international markets.
Why is diversification in fixed income portfolios more important than ever, and what’s the best way to achieve it today? Ellie Clapton and Darpan Harar explore the key considerations in the current environment.
Market and portfolio insights, webinars & events curated from across our investment teams to help you steer through changing investment landscapes.
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