Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2026
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
08 May 2026
Investment Institute
The end of easy globalisation
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
14 Apr 2026
Investment Institute
War in the Gulf
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
5 minutes
02 Mar 2026
Investment Institute
Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
14 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
12 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Venezuela: scenarios and market implications
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
5 minutes
07 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Emerging market’s net issuance drag is easing
A major headwind to emerging market equity performance is fading. Read how this structural shift could lift future returns and reshape the case for EM allocations.
6 minutes
24 Nov 2025
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
06 Nov 2025
Investment Institute
The great rebalancing
A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.
20 minutes
04 Nov 2025
Investment Institute
The shrinking upside in the dollar story
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
19 minutes
05 Sep 2025
Investment Institute
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
20 minutes
04 Jul 2025
Investment Institute
Beyond the one-way trade
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
04 Jul 2025
Transition investing
Net-zero investing: searching for returns and real-world change
Shifting from reducing financed emissions to financing reduced emissions. Using practical examples, this paper sets out how we can evolve the approach to net-zero investing to achieve the dual objectives of delivering decarbonisation in the real economy while optimising returns for clients and beneficiaries.
10 minutes
04 Jul 2025
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
29 Apr 2025
Talking tariffs
Trump unleashes trade policy, shakes markets, adapts the rules, sets a course
Trump’s sweeping trade reset marks the largest US tariff escalation in nearly a century. Ninety One’s Investment Institute unpacks the policy shift, outlines scenario-based outcomes, and explores what it means for markets.
10 minutes
14 Apr 2025
Investment Institute
The third lever
Monetary, fiscal, migration. How the US recession was averted, 2022-2023.
40 minutes
09 Dec 2024
US election 2024
US election: A clear cut result, but what does it mean for the economy?
US equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.
5 minutes
07 Nov 2024
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
28 Oct 2024
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
29 Apr 2024
Investment Institute
A new capex supercycle: driving powerful and transformative growth
Over the next decade a combination of the energy transition, nearshoring, geopolitics, demographics, technology, and public investment spending could trigger a capex supercycle that would see capex growing 2-3 percentage points faster than global GDP.
8 minutes
09 Apr 2024
Investment Institute
Emerging market volatility shifts lower
After a lacklustre decade of returns in emerging market equities, reviewing the structural potential for the asset class drove many allocation discussions throughout 2023. But the diversifying potential of EM equities proved a sticking point. Three main objections are often raised and this analysis reviews each in turn.
15 minutes
25 Jan 2024
Road to 2030
A crisis of global integration
We are arguably living through a fourth systemic crisis. The end result will be a vastly different economy. Understanding the investment implications is what this iteration of our Road to 2030 research is about.
11 minutes
27 Nov 2023
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2023
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
01 Nov 2023
Investment Institute
AI: Our initial investment thinking
Are we on the brink of one of those huge advances for humankind that changes everything? Across capabilities, we assessed the potential impact of artificial intelligence.
15 minutes
20 Jul 2023
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
40 minutes
28 Apr 2023
Emerging perspectives
EM Perspectives: takeaways from our annual seminar
With emerging markets returning to the agenda of many of the world’s biggest asset allocators, our annual two-day investor workshop has made a timely return.
3 minutes
23 Mar 2023
Net Zero
Why corporates must act
Written by independent researchers from Imperial College London and Reading University through Imperial Consultants, this paper looks at the physical risks of climate change and its potential impact on corporates and financial markets.
15 minutes
20 Mar 2023
Sustainable investing
A disorderly transition
Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.
25 minutes
07 Mar 2023
Emerging perspectives
In the crossfire: revisiting the investment case for emerging markets
Sahil Mahtani and Philip Saunders analyse the last 10 years of EM investing with an eye to what investors can expect ahead.
8 minutes
22 Nov 2022
Multi-Asset
Capital market assumptions - September 2022
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
15 Nov 2022
Macroscope
A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap
Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.
3 minutes
23 Jun 2022
Multi-Asset
Capital market assumptions - March 2022
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
26 May 2022
Macroscope
Is central bank tightening priced in?
So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.
3 minutes
27 Apr 2022
Macroscope
Inflation: Why the ‘hard asset’ mantra needs a rethink
Strategist Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called ‘hard assets’ during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, and why an active approach is more likely to benefit portfolios.
5 minutes
15 Mar 2022
Investment Institute
Inside China's tech revolution
Sahil Mahtani and Chris Miller take a look at China’s tech revolution and provide a report card from consumer internet to hard tech.
20 minutes
22 Feb 2022
Macroscope
The Chinese have pivoted and no one else has noticed
Portfolio Manager Iain Cunningham discusses how it is time to look through the negative Chinese growth surprises and take advantage of depressed valuations.
4 minutes
15 Feb 2022
China
China’s tech revolution: unprecedented scale, mixed results
A report card from consumer internet to hard tech.
50 minutes
19 Oct 2021
Investment Institute research
Central bank digital currencies: an age-defining shift in the monetary system?
A recent increase in interest has seen many countries bring forward analysis and trials for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Given the complexities involved, we ask: why the rush?
30 minutes
08 Jun 2021
Investment Institute research
Europe and the race to net zero
In this deep-dive analysis, we map Europe’s pathway to a clean-energy future, and draw lessons for investors on how to navigate this unprecedented economic transformation.
45 minutes
26 Mar 2021
Investment Institute research
Europe’s new ‘strategic autonomy’
Faced with a growing number of internal and external challenges, Europe’s leaders and policy chiefs have converged on a concept called ‘strategic autonomy’ as the response to Europe’s problems and shape the region’s future - what does this mean for investors?
35 minutes
05 Mar 2021
Investment Institute
All rise: Assessing inflation risk in a post-pandemic world
Inflation arises from complex interactions between multiple factors over long periods, making it difficult to predict. Ninety One’s Investment Institute explores inflation in theory and practice, and considers what history tells us about the inflationary outlook now.
52 minutes
25 Jan 2021
Investment Institute
Inflation: coming to an economy near you?
Could COVID-19 be the catalyst that finally lets the inflation genie out of the bottle? Now is a good time for investors to consider how it could impact them. Here, we explain why we think inflation risk has increased.
7 minutes
14 Dec 2020
Investment Institute
The Fed’s new era
The why? what? how? and so what? of the US Federal Reserve’s long-drawn-out framework review
6 minutes
01 Sep 2020