US election | how a Trump or Harris victory will shape markets

April in review

April was a more challenging month for capital markets, with numerous asset classes experiencing losses. Inflation proved stickier than expected, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year. This prompted further upward moves in US yields, weighing on fixed income assets. Emerging market equities and commodities bucked the trend, delivering healthy gains.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Quarter one in review

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by continued strength for risk assets, with a number of major equity indices extending record highs. Economic data kept surprising on the upside, which lifted hopes that a recession could be avoided. Sharp upward moves in US yields weighed on global fixed income markets.

Q4 in review

Robust US economic data and higher inflation made for a volatile end to the year in bond markets, pushing up yields and strengthening the US dollar. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve further dented optimism around the path of interest rate cuts, resulting in a more subdued end to an otherwise strong year for equity markets.

A building global recovery

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie.

November in review

The US election was the main event of the month, with Donald Trump’s clean sweep driving a sharp risk-on rally, particularly in the US. It was a mixed month for South African assets, while in Europe, French assets underperformed given the country’s budget situation. Sovereign bond yields generally fell over November, predominantly in Europe, although Japan bucked this trend. US yields were volatile.

The year of the ballot

Elections often move markets. This year, eight of the world’s 10 most-populous nations go to the polls in the same year for the first time ever. FX markets are often the best way to express views or hedge positions in and around elections, and FX volatility presents a source of potential alpha. We have produced this piece to help investors navigate this year. The year of the ballot.

October in review

October was a volatile month for global markets for various reasons, but the key common factor throughout was the upcoming US elections, and the general appetite for risk eroded as the event drew closer. By month-end, most markets were down, in US dollars.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Q3 in review

Despite significant volatility at the start of August, the third quarter of 2024 proved to be a strong one for global markets, across both equities and fixed income. This was driven by several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, cutting interest rates, while US economic data proved to be more resilient than feared. An exception to the trend was oil markets, which saw prices fall over the period.

August in review

The month began with a sharp selloff in equities due to poor US employment data and a surprise rate hike in Japan, causing turmoil in currency carry trades. However, markets recovered as central bankers in the US and Japan signalled dovish policies, boosting global bonds and equities on expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

July in review

After a positive start to July, market sentiment soured as the month progressed on renewed China fears and some underwhelming ‘Big Tech’ earnings. Developed market equities outperformed emerging market stocks, with the latter dragged down by China. In the US, small-caps outperformed their large-cap counterparts. From a regional perspective, the UK was one of the few bright spots.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Quarter two in review

It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.

US fiscal consolidation? Not in 2025

Multi-Asset team Analyst, Dan Morgan, discusses how US fiscal policy will continue to play an increasingly influential role. As investors navigate a new policymaking world, he considers what they should look out for.

May in review

May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.

April in review

April was a more challenging month for capital markets, with numerous asset classes experiencing losses. Inflation proved stickier than expected, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year. This prompted further upward moves in US yields, weighing on fixed income assets. Emerging market equities and commodities bucked the trend, delivering healthy gains.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Quarter one in review

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by continued strength for risk assets, with a number of major equity indices extending record highs. Economic data kept surprising on the upside, which lifted hopes that a recession could be avoided. Sharp upward moves in US yields weighed on global fixed income markets.

Q4 in review

Robust US economic data and higher inflation made for a volatile end to the year in bond markets, pushing up yields and strengthening the US dollar. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve further dented optimism around the path of interest rate cuts, resulting in a more subdued end to an otherwise strong year for equity markets.

A building global recovery

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie.

November in review

The US election was the main event of the month, with Donald Trump’s clean sweep driving a sharp risk-on rally, particularly in the US. It was a mixed month for South African assets, while in Europe, French assets underperformed given the country’s budget situation. Sovereign bond yields generally fell over November, predominantly in Europe, although Japan bucked this trend. US yields were volatile.

The year of the ballot

Elections often move markets. This year, eight of the world’s 10 most-populous nations go to the polls in the same year for the first time ever. FX markets are often the best way to express views or hedge positions in and around elections, and FX volatility presents a source of potential alpha. We have produced this piece to help investors navigate this year. The year of the ballot.

October in review

October was a volatile month for global markets for various reasons, but the key common factor throughout was the upcoming US elections, and the general appetite for risk eroded as the event drew closer. By month-end, most markets were down, in US dollars.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Q3 in review

Despite significant volatility at the start of August, the third quarter of 2024 proved to be a strong one for global markets, across both equities and fixed income. This was driven by several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, cutting interest rates, while US economic data proved to be more resilient than feared. An exception to the trend was oil markets, which saw prices fall over the period.

August in review

The month began with a sharp selloff in equities due to poor US employment data and a surprise rate hike in Japan, causing turmoil in currency carry trades. However, markets recovered as central bankers in the US and Japan signalled dovish policies, boosting global bonds and equities on expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

July in review

After a positive start to July, market sentiment soured as the month progressed on renewed China fears and some underwhelming ‘Big Tech’ earnings. Developed market equities outperformed emerging market stocks, with the latter dragged down by China. In the US, small-caps outperformed their large-cap counterparts. From a regional perspective, the UK was one of the few bright spots.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Quarter two in review

It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.

US fiscal consolidation? Not in 2025

Multi-Asset team Analyst, Dan Morgan, discusses how US fiscal policy will continue to play an increasingly influential role. As investors navigate a new policymaking world, he considers what they should look out for.

May in review

May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.

April in review

April was a more challenging month for capital markets, with numerous asset classes experiencing losses. Inflation proved stickier than expected, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year. This prompted further upward moves in US yields, weighing on fixed income assets. Emerging market equities and commodities bucked the trend, delivering healthy gains.

Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024

Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Quarter one in review

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by continued strength for risk assets, with a number of major equity indices extending record highs. Economic data kept surprising on the upside, which lifted hopes that a recession could be avoided. Sharp upward moves in US yields weighed on global fixed income markets.

US election | how a Trump or Harris victory will shape markets

Philip Saunders

Listen to more Big Picture podcasts:

Authored by

Philip Saunders

Director Investment Institute

Global Macro insights

Q4 in review

A building global recovery

November in review

The year of the ballot

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