Defence remains key
2026 opens with uneven growth, elevated debt and valuations that leave little margin for error. Resilience and precision in positioning will matter more than ever.
Global
The Big Picture podcast
The Big Picture podcast
Has inflation bottomed?
Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.
23 Aug 2024
11 minutes
Jason Borbora-Sheen
Listen to more Big Picture podcasts:
Subscribe to our Big Picture podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast or simply search for ‘Ninety One Big Picture’ on your podcast app of choice.
Authored by
Global Macro insights
April in review
Financial markets surged in April, defying geopolitical tensions. Global equities delivered their strongest gain since late 2020, led by technology and AI-linked stocks, even as the US-Iran conflict kept oil prices elevated and complicated the inflation outlook. Government bonds weakened as higher energy prices pushed out rate cut expectations, while credit markets performed well in the risk-on environment. Commodities were mixed: industrial metals advanced, oil was volatile, and gold was flat. Investor sentiment improved as markets looked past near-term risks and focused on resilient earnings and structural growth themes.
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2026
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2026
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
Q1 in review
Global markets took a decisive turn in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, as early optimism gave way to a geopolitical shock. A strong start to the year was derailed by escalating conflict in the Middle East, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing a rapid re-pricing of interest rate expectations. The result was a broad-based risk-off move across global markets, with macroeconomic factors reasserting themselves as the primary drivers of market performance.
The end of easy globalisation
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
The physical reality of an oil shock
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe global oil supply shock, leaving the market with a deficit that available alternatives cannot meaningfully offset. While prices have yet to fully reflect the strain, tightening inventories and disrupted flows point to higher near-term volatility and a lasting shift in the oil price outlook.
Oil shock: when geopolitics shuts the taps
Oil markets have reacted sharply to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Gooden, Head of Global Natural Resources at Ninety One, explains why the disruption is reverberating through oil and gas markets, how supply constraints are pushing prices higher, and what it could mean for energy markets in the weeks and months ahead.
February in review
Financial markets were broadly positive in February. US Treasury yields declined and global equities posted gains on resilient economic data. However, technology stocks had a weaker month, selling off amid concerns about potential disruption from AI. Commodities were again strong: precious metals continued to rally, while oil prices rose, partly on fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. US-Israeli strikes on Iran took place on the final day of the month after most financial markets had closed. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed last year, although new levies were soon introduced via an alternative legal route.
War in the Gulf
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
January in review
A noisy month in geopolitics drove up market volatility, but global equities made gains – helped by signs of strength in the global economy. US dollar weakness and inflows from investors seeking diversification boosted emerging market (EM) assets. In fixed income, softer inflation data supported European bonds, but political uncertainty jostled Japan's yield curve. Commodities made a strong start to the year.
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2026
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
Q4 in review
Risk assets capped a strong year with gains in Q4. Equities rose, while credit and emerging markets fixed income also delivered healthy returns. Oil lagged, but other commodities finished on a high, with precious metals extending their advance. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice during the quarter, but officials made it clear that the bar for further easing is rising.
Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
Nearer the start of a multi-year cycle
Emerging markets outperformance tends to happen in multi-year cycles. The question for 2026 is whether we are closer to the end or the beginning of this EM cycle. There is strong evidence that it is the latter.
Goldilocks prevails: investing in 2026
After a disorienting 12 months, investors need to recalibrate their perceptions of risk – a ‘Goldilocks’ macro environment is likely to prevail in 2026. But while conditions appear ‘just right’, thoughtful positioning is required within each asset class.
Defence remains key
2026 opens with uneven growth, elevated debt and valuations that leave little margin for error. Resilience and precision in positioning will matter more than ever.
Venezuela: scenarios and market implications
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
November in review
November brought a shift in tone, with global equities pausing their seven-month ascent as valuation and policy risks reasserted themselves. Hawkish central-bank signals and fatigue in the AI trade weighed on markets mid-month, before softer data and a calmer Fed helped steady sentiment. Fixed income markets were mixed as shifting rate expectations pulled markets in different directions, while credit delivered gains despite strain in the riskiest segments. Gold remained supported and copper firmed on supply concerns.
The overlooked frontier
Amid the global AI buildout, emerging markets credit is quietly powering the infrastructure behind the revolution - offering investors yield with purpose and access to the engines of AI growth.
Explore more insights
Insights
Insights
Market and portfolio insights, webinars & events curated from across our investment teams to help you steer through changing investment landscapes.
Read more
Important Information
This communication is provided for general information only and should not be construed as advice.
All the information in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. The views are those of the contributor at the time of publication and do not necessarily reflect those of Ninety One.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
All rights reserved. Issued by Ninety One.
For further information on indices, fund ratings, yields, targeted or projected performance returns, back-tested results, model return results, hypothetical performance returns, the investment team, our investment process, and specific portfolio names, please click here.