4 Nov 2021
11 minutes
To listen to this and other podcasts, subscribe on Apple Podcast or simply search for ‘Ninety One Big Picture’ on your podcast app of choice.
Markets diverged in the third quarter, with equities holding firm while bonds sold off as yields rose. A renewed US-Iran escalation lifted Brent crude sharply, reviving inflation concerns and prompting central banks in the US, Eurozone and Japan to raise rates in September. Equities still made modest gains, led by the US and supported by resilient growth and robust earnings, while gold and copper also rose.
A trip to the US over the summer to speak with allocators highlighted strong interest in EM equities. But it also flagged important questions about investing in this dynamic and recently underexplored part of the stock market.
Central banks have returned to the gold market in force since the Q1 slowdown. With the gold price appearing better supported than many market participants had assumed, the case for a re-rating of gold equities is strengthening.
The Value team explains how it hunts for mispricings in moments of rising uncertainty in markets.
EM equity gains in 2026 have been narrow, concentrated in AI-driven information technology. Archie Hart and Varun Laijawalla explain why this memory upcycle looks structurally different to previous ones, with recent earnings from the key players supporting a fundamentals story. They believe the theme is early, rather than exhausted.
Growth momentum is building across the Chinese economy, not solely in technology-linked sectors. We see opportunities for investors to align with the country’s ongoing structural transformation.
AI is driving new demand for commodities, while supply remains disciplined – supporting the outlook for natural resources equities.
August was a strong month for risk assets, with equities extending their advance as gold surged on renewed fiscal and inflation concerns. Resilient earnings, highlighted by another blowout Nvidia report, drove US and European equities to fresh records, while sharp moves in bond yields kept fixed income markets volatile. Gold jumped 10% as investors sought protection against inflation and financial repression, while emerging markets extended their gains on the back of the AI trade.
It has been another strong year for EM equities, which has left many investors pondering where exactly we are in this cycle. Archie Hart and Varun Laijawalla explain why there is scope to capture a re-rating that they believe has considerable upside from here.
Overlapping pressures across agriculture, fertiliser and energy markets could create fresh inflationary risks this year, with wide ranging implications for commodity markets, monetary policy and emerging market assets.
Global markets split sharply in July, as a reassessment of AI valuations collided with a renewed oil shock. Doubts over AI capex and monetisation weighed heavily on technology and semiconductor stocks, while the collapse of the US-Iran agreement drove oil prices sharply higher, lifting energy, defence, and value-oriented markets. The result was one of the sharpest rotations in market leadership so far this year.
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
A shrinking supply of shares has flattered US equity returns for years. The AI issuance boom is putting that into reverse.
Markets are pricing in a rapid normalisation of Middle East oil supply following the US-Iran conflict. The talk at a resources industry conference highlights that risks remain.
Risk assets had one of their strongest quarters in years, with easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East backed up by resilient earnings, and continued AI-capex-driven growth. Emerging markets, especially Korea and Taiwan, outperformed the US, while commodities came under pressure after the peace deal and expectations for rate hikes. Global credit markets also delivered a strong rebound over the quarter.
A low multiple is not necessarily a sign of value. Genuine value arises when there is a gap between the market value of a company and its true intrinsic worth.
The SpaceX IPO is just the opening act. With Anthropic and OpenAI now both filing confidentially for their own listings, Ninety One analyst Anton du Plooy considers what a wave of trillion-dollar AI debuts means for markets, and for the investors who have to decide what to do about them.
Financial markets were broadly positive in May. Global equities advanced, led by technology stocks as AI enthusiasm remained a key driver of performance. Bond markets were more volatile, with a sharp mid-month sell-off driven by inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. However, sentiment improved later in the month as hopes of a US-Iran deal increased, helping oil prices to fall sharply and supporting both sovereign bonds and credit markets. Commodities were mixed overall, with industrial metals advancing while Brent crude recorded its largest monthly decline since the pandemic.
Natural resources equities can mitigate vulnerability to equity market-regime shifts. The asset class has distinct performance drivers that may complement existing equity allocations.
A research trip to China has reinforced that the energy transition and intelligent economy are accelerating – and investable
Important Information
This communication is provided for general information only and should not be construed as advice.
All the information in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. The views are those of the contributor at the time of publication and do not necessarily reflect those of Ninety One.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
All rights reserved. Issued by Ninety One.
For further information on indices, fund ratings, yields, targeted or projected performance returns, back-tested results, model return results, hypothetical performance returns, the investment team, our investment process, and specific portfolio names, please click here.
