Market review

Q3 in review

Risk appetite held firm in the third quarter as expectations of US rate cuts outweighed tariff concerns. Global equities advanced, led by resilient US markets and supported by gains in Europe, the UK and emerging markets. Fixed income told a more nuanced story: Treasuries rallied on the Fed’s first cut of the cycle, but long-dated bonds in France and other fiscally stretched markets came under pressure. Gold, meanwhile, defied the broader ‘risk-on’ theme, surging to record highs as investors sought protection against persistent inflation.

3 Oct 2025

10 minutes

Chapters

01
Global equities
02
US
03
South Africa
04
China
05
Emerging markets
06
Europe and UK
07
Global fixed income
08
Global credit
09
EM fixed income
10
Commodities
01

Global equities

Shipping containers
Tariff fears fade as global equities push higher

Global equities extended their gains in the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by resilient growth and supportive policy shifts. Investors who had feared a deeper tariff-related slowdown were reassured as the impact proved less severe than anticipated. The US reached trade deals with various economies, including the EU and Japan, landing on a new tariff rate of 15%, lower than some had feared. Rhetoric towards China was more positive following direct talks, with reports of a deal struck on TikTok. These easing trade tensions, robust earnings updates and renewed enthusiasm for technology leaders all contributed to solid gains.

European and UK equities posted solid gains in Q3. However, political concerns resurfaced in France after President Macron appointed his fifth prime minister in less than two years, raising questions over fiscal stability and growth prospects. Emerging market equities outperformed those of developed markets, supported by decisive stimulus measures in China and broad strength across Asia. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities outpaced their Q2 gains by a wide margin, while Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea also posted gains, with major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix riding the wave of tech enthusiasm.

Stronger domestic demand in several regions, combined with a US dollar that stabilised in Q3 following earlier weakness and the US Federal Reserve’s September rate cut, added to the positive backdrop. By sector, information technology again led the way, extending its outperformance as investors focused on earnings momentum and AI-related themes. Energy lagged once more, with oil prices declining as demand forecasts were pared back and producers, including OPEC+ and non-OPEC suppliers, signalled higher output.

Indices (total return in local currency)
S&P 500 8.0%
Nasdaq Composite 11.4%
MSCI ACWI 7.6
Nikkei 225 11.6%
Eurostoxx 600 3.1%
FTSE 100 7.5%
Hang Seng Index 12.4%
SSE Composite 12.7%

Source: Bloomberg as at 30 September, 2025

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