AI listing boom threatens to reverse a two-decade tailwind for US equities
A shrinking supply of publicly traded shares has underwritten US equity returns for years. A wave of AI-driven listings and issuance is putting that into reverse.
The world's physical resources are coming under pressure from three forces: conflicts are draining energy supplies, artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented demand for electricity and metals, and fertiliser and input disruption is threatening the next agricultural cycle.
With global oil inventories depleted by approximately one billion barrels, proposed US data centres requiring 200GW of power and farmers facing renewed fertiliser shortages ahead of 2027, the strain is spreading across energy, industrial metals and food production. Years of constrained investment and increasingly fragmented supply chains could make these pressures difficult to reverse.
Unlike the China-led commodity supercycle of the 2000s, today's market is being shaped less by extraordinary demand growth and more by constrained supply, geopolitical fragmentation and the growing importance of regional resource security.
Paul Gooden, Head of Natural Resources: "This is the revenge of the old economy. For years, investors have been captivated by the digital economy, but AI, data centres and electrification all depend on the physical world. You cannot build a data centre without copper and aluminium, and you cannot run one without power.
"This is not simply another commodity supercycle. Demand is solid, but the real story is supply. Producers have spent the past decade prioritising cash flow over growth, and that discipline is now colliding with geopolitical fragmentation and new sources of demand. We believe we are still in the early innings of this cycle."
The global oil market is facing three simultaneous crises: upstream production, refining capacity and tanker availability. An estimated 7–7.5 million barrels1 a day of crude and refined-product supply is missing from the Middle East and Russia combined, while approximately 8 million barrels2 a day of refining capacity is offline globally.
The US Gulf Coast three-to-one refining crack has risen to approximately US$45 a barrel, against a more typical level of US$20, while tanker costs between the Middle East and Asia have climbed from US$2–3 to around US$30 a barrel3, a 10x increase.
Global oil inventories have fallen by approximately one billion barrels since the beginning of the conflict, leaving observed stocks at decade lows4.
Gooden: "We are dealing with an upstream crisis, a refining crisis and a tanker crisis, and they are compounding one another. Brent at US$110 does not tell the whole story. The pressure is also showing up in refining margins, freight costs and the price consumers are paying for diesel. Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, rebuilding a billion barrels of inventories would create additional demand for years. The market is underestimating how long it could take to return to normal and supply has not normalised yet."
After two decades of largely stagnant US electricity consumption, artificial intelligence and manufacturing reshoring are driving a new wave of power demand.
Proposed US data-centre projects represent approximately 200GW5 of electricity demand, equivalent to roughly 200 times the power consumption of San Francisco. With grid capacity constrained, hyperscalers are increasingly exploring direct power generation, creating new opportunities for natural gas.
Gooden: ""The AI revolution is running up against a very physical constraint: electricity. Hyperscalers are planning data centres on an unprecedented scale, but the grid simply cannot keep pace. These facilities need enormous amounts of reliable power, and they need it quickly. Natural gas is increasingly becoming part of the answer. The race to build AI infrastructure is also becoming a race to secure energy. Without the power to run them, even the most advanced data centres are just expensive buildings."
The race for electricity and infrastructure is also reshaping metals markets, although record prices are masking increasingly divergent conditions.
Copper inventories have risen sharply as material is redirected into the US amid tariff uncertainty, while Chilean production has fallen to its lowest level in six years6. Meanwhile, approximately four million tonnes of new Indonesian aluminium capacity7 is expected over the coming year, even as European inventories remain historically low.
George Cheveley, Natural Resources Portfolio Manager: "I've been analysing copper markets since 1998, and this is one of the strangest I've seen. Some investors see a market heading for a significant deficit, while others see oversupply. Both can point to evidence supporting their view.
"The long-term fundamentals for copper remain compelling, driven by electrification and a growing demand for infrastructure. But investors shouldn't confuse a strong long-term investment case with a straightforward market today. In the short term, at these prices, copper looks increasingly risky."
Gold presents a different opportunity. Central banks purchased a net 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, 62%8 more than a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. Sustained official-sector demand reflects a broader shift towards reserve diversification.
Cheveley: "Central banks are continuing to buy gold even at historically elevated prices, suggesting this is a structural shift rather than a short-term reaction to geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, gold miners are generating extraordinary cash flows, but equity valuations have yet to fully reflect the improvement in profitability."
Disruption to Middle Eastern fertiliser supplies, higher energy costs and tightening agricultural inventories are raising concerns about global food production heading into 2027.
The Middle East is a major supplier of nitrogen fertiliser, while global potash production remains concentrated in a handful of countries. In 2025, Canada produced approximately 15 million tonnes of potash, compared with 10 million tonnes from Russia and 6 million tonnes from Belarus, on a potassium oxide equivalent basis. Transport bottlenecks continue to complicate exports from Russia and Belarus.
Although Northern Hemisphere farmers largely secured fertiliser supplies for the 2026 growing season, renewed purchasing ahead of 2027 plantings could place significant pressure on availability and prices.
Dawid Heyl, Natural Resources Portfolio Manager: "The fertiliser market is experiencing a significant supply shock, but the full impact for nitrogen may not emerge until farmers are forced to return to the market ahead of the next planting season. Potash faces a different challenge: production is concentrated in a handful of countries, and logistical bottlenecks are making it increasingly difficult to get material to customers."
Global grain inventories also appear to have peaked9, while a prolonged El Niño could disrupt harvests in 2027. A potential increase in US ethanol blending to 15% could create a significant new source of demand for corn10. Tightening grain inventories, rising supply risks and mounting pressure on farm economics are creating the conditions for a potential turning point in the agricultural cycle.
Heyl said: "After years of plentiful grain supplies, the agricultural cycle may be beginning to turn. Inventories have plateaued, weather risks are increasing and ethanol could become a much more significant source of demand for corn.”
"The risk is that these pressures arrive together. Higher diesel and fertiliser costs are already squeezing farmers, and a prolonged El Niño could put further pressure on yields. We believe the conditions are emerging for a potential multi-year bull market, particularly across nitrogen fertiliser, biofuels and seeds."
Across energy, metals and agriculture, the same underlying pressures are emerging: demand for physical resources is growing, supply chains are becoming more fragmented and producers remain disciplined about bringing new capacity online. For investors, the opportunity extends beyond higher commodity prices to the natural-resource companies positioned to benefit from tighter markets and stronger cash generation.
Gooden: "The world is entering a period where access to physical resources could matter as much as access to capital. Conflict is exposing the fragility of global supply chains, AI is accelerating demand for power and metals, and pressure on agriculture is raising the stakes for food security. Yet years of underinvestment mean supply cannot simply respond overnight and the ability to pay for resources will become increasingly important.”
"For investors, this is about more than rising commodity prices. It is about a fundamental shift in the value of the companies that produce the energy, metals and agricultural resources the global economy depends on. The next investment cycle may be defined as much by what the world struggles to produce as by what it wants to consume."
1 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, EIA, BNP. September 2026
2 Source: Bloomberg, Ninety One, September 2026.
3 Source: Bloomberg, Poten, Ninety One. September 2026
4 Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, Ninety One. September 2026
5 Source: World Bank, UN, BHP analysis, Ninety One. September 2025 and NextEra Energy, Ninety One. 1) ISO/RTO Forecasts, NERC ES&D, Utility IRPs, ICF.2) Historical demand represents data from NERC ES&D from 2000 to 2023, 2024 represents forecast from NERC ES&D. 3) Q1 2025 represents ICF's demand projections from 2025 to 2050. August 2026.
6 Source: Bloomberg, Ninety One, September 2026.
7 Source: Bloomberg, Ninety One, September 2026.
8 Source: World Gold Council, Ninety One. 30 June 2026.
9 Source: Ninety One, Bloomberg, September 2026
10 Source: EIA, Ninety One, oxygenate plant production of fuel ethanol (annual sums of monthly data). 2025 supply/disposition: gasoline supplied 3,261mb; ethanol blended 326.8mb (10.0% blend); exports 52.7mb.
Scenario: production = gasoline pool × blend rate + exports (held at 2025 level) + 2025 residual. Gasoline pool +3%p.a. from 2025: blend rate ramps linearly 10% to 15% by 2031. 2026 shown as scenario year.