Hidden GEMs: Oil shock may accelerate the shift to electrification—especially in emerging markets
Rising oil prices and energy security risks are reshaping the economics of electrification
25 Aug 2026
1 minute
Ninety One’s Multi Asset Credit team explains how the AI investment theme has extended far beyond ‘hyperscaler’ issuance, with new financing packages often providing better compensation for exposure to the same underlying company risk. In the current environment, the ability to navigate this complexity and the freedom to invest dynamically across a wide opportunity set carry distinct advantages.
A broadening range of AI-related credit instruments means there are multiple ways to provide capital to the same underlying companies. But structures and spreads vary significantly.
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Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofA and JPMorgan. August 2026.
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has dominated financial market headlines for months, with the seemingly unstoppable equity rally sparking valuation-bubble concerns while intensifying fears over market concentration. But AI is an altogether different story for the credit asset class.
While cashflows and reserves have financed much of the recent AI-related capital expenditure, tech companies are increasingly turning to credit markets for funding, resulting in an accelerated pace of credit issuance – with 2025 already setting records. As this issuance is investment grade and dominated by highly rated, cash-generative issuers, credit quality is not a key concern here. But the supply/demand balance is tipping.
For several years, the combination of reduced new issuance (after the records set in 2020) and strong investor demand – thanks to the high yields on offer – has provided a strong ‘technical’ support for the overall market. But both factors look set to shift: tech-sector issuance will increase supply, while a fall in yields may temper demand, as noted here. Combine this with credit spreads that have been anchored at historically low levels, and investors should brace for relativity higher credit spread volatility in the major US investment-grade credit market, regardless of the fact that these are good quality issuers.
With a shift in volatility regime likely in the investment-grade market, investors should take a bottom-up approach and look to capitalise on mispriced risk opportunities. Investors with the flexibility to explore the wider credit market universe can find a more favourable technical backdrop in specialist segments such as the loan market, bank capital, and select parts of the high-yield market.
Geopolitical fragmentation and constrained supply are creating a new investment backdrop across energy, metals and mining.
The third vintage in the Emerging Market Senior Credit series reflects continued investor demand for private credit strategies financing businesses and infrastructure across Africa and other emerging markets.
The biggest technology momentum unwind in 27 years is coinciding with a shift on where value will be created across the AI ecosystem.
Overlapping pressures across agriculture, fertiliser and energy markets could create fresh inflationary risks, with diverse implications for central banks and emerging markets.
A shrinking supply of publicly traded shares has underwritten US equity returns for years. A wave of AI-driven listings and issuance is putting that into reverse.
The Emerging Africa & Asia Infrastructure Fund (“EAAIF”) has signed a senior secured debt facility of up to USD 50 million with Ukko Renewable, the Southeast Asian renewable energy platform of Groupe Duval. The financing will help advance an initial 2 GW pipeline of wind, solar and hydropower projects across Vietnam, the Philippines and other regional markets to a ready-to-build stage.
BII and EAAIF, managed by Ninety One, are supporting Blueleaf's expansion in India through a shared financing arrangement. The transaction supports the next phase of Blueleaf Energy’s growth and India’s clean energy transition. The partnership highlights BII’s climate expertise and demonstrates impact investor collaboration to unlock capital for renewable energy infrastructure.
The Emerging Africa & Asia Infrastructure Fund (EAAIF) has announced a USD 30 million senior secured corporate loan to Hassan Allam Utilities.
Improving corporate earnings, resilient economies and a changing global investment landscape are creating a compelling backdrop for emerging market assets.
AI and the Iran conflict are pushing Europe and the US onto sharply different economic and monetary paths.
The SpaceX IPO is just the opening act. With Anthropic and OpenAI now both filing confidentially for their own listings, Ninety One Analyst Anton du Plooy considers what a wave of trillion-dollar AI debuts means for markets, and for the investors who must decide what to do about them.
Repeated supply shocks are redrawing traditional EM/DM distinctions, challenging conventional asset class behaviour and creating a compelling, often mispriced opportunity in emerging market debt – with structural shifts like falling renewable energy costs and AI broadening that opportunity set further.
Markets may be underestimating the economic impact of the Hormuz disruption even as AI optimism accelerates - creating a growing disconnect between buoyant markets, fragile consumers and geopolitical risk, according to Sahil Mahtani, Director, Investment Institute.
Through this partnership, the firms will collaborate to introduce a suite of new active ETF products, providing investors across Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region, with access to asset classes across developed and emerging markets.
EAAIF, managed by Ninety One, has committed a USD 40 million senior secured loan as part of a USD 142.9 million debt package to finance Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuel (“SAF”) plant in the Sokhna Special Economic Zone—the first project-financed SAF facility in Africa and the Middle East.
Darpan Harar and Justin Jewell, Co-Heads of Multi Asset Credit, explain that while risks that built up post the Global Financial Crisis are beginning to surface in US private markets, credit quality has improved in the mainstream high-yield market. With recent market moves masking a divergent picture of risk exposure across mainstream credit markets, investors can capitalise on the sell-off and position themselves defensively.
Rising oil prices and energy security risks are reshaping the economics of electrification
Three structural forces — multipolarity, commodity bottlenecks and political dissatisfaction — are reshaping markets and the global order.
Appointment accesses Ninety One’s multi-asset, equity and fixed income capabilities
Strains are building in US private debt as underwriting weakens and defaults rise. In contrast, investors in emerging markets can access higher senior-secured yields with stronger protections
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