舊工業的震撼:在新能源的世界中投資重工業(只供英文版)

隨著世界能源供應基礎由化石燃料轉至主要以金屬為基礎的科技,許多商品市場面臨動盪。這可能是投資者的機會,但也存有潛在的陷阱。

2021年11月5日

14分鐘

George Cheveley
隨著世界能源供應基礎由化石燃料轉至主要以金屬為基礎的科技,許多商品市場面臨動盪。這可能是投資者的機會,但也存有潛在的陷阱。

The fast view

  • Decarbonisation will be mineral intensive. The world is switching from a fossil fuel-based power system to one which is essentially metals-based.
  • Heavy industries such as copper and steel will be crucial to enabling the clean-energy transition. That will give rise to investment opportunities, but they may not be obvious.
  • The long-term outlook for copper demand appears strong, given copper’s vital role in electrification. But supply expansion could lead to a sharp reversal following recent price gains.
  • Steel has been unloved by investors, partly because of poor returns and also on environmental grounds. However, several factors could lead to higher steel prices longer term.
  • Emissions-intensive industries like copper and steel are central to the clean-energy economy we are working towards. Through engagement, active investors have an opportunity to help make them fit for the future.

Chapters

01
Introduction
02
Copper – the transition metal
03
Steel – unloved, but due a comeback?
04
Conclusion
01

Introduction

Two engineers working machine parts
Much uncertainty surrounds the economic transformation required to achieve the energy transition.
Which technologies will prevail? What materials will be required to enable those technologies? These are just two of many questions yet to be answered.

One thing we know is that decarbonisation will be mineral intensive. The world is switching from a fossil fuel-based power system to one which is essentially metals-based. The power source may be wind and solar, but wind turbines are 70% steel, while copper is required to generate and carry the electricity.

It amounts to what we might call a ‘shock of the old’. In the 1980s, a BBC television series titled ‘The Shock of the New’ explored European society’s encounters with modernism in art. In today’s economy, the clash of cultures is closer to the opposite: an economy increasingly focused on transitioning to a clean-energy future is having to grapple with old industries with old business models and old technologies that are essential for enabling that transition.

The intensifying focus on tackling climate change has combined with other, nearer-term factors to put the spotlight back on commodities:

  • Pandemic stimulus packages have led to consumers buying durables and to governments promising green infrastructure.
  • Logistics bottlenecks have highlighted the weaknesses in just-in-time global supply chains, leading companies to consider larger inventories and even on-shoring.

It adds up to a complex backdrop for materials markets. We believe there will be many opportunities for commodity investors as the energy transition progresses, but they will not always be obvious. And those looking to capture them need to be active and careful, because supply/demand balances are volatile and long-term structural themes will continue to crash into short-term stocking cycles.

As active investors, our aim is to pinpoint where capital is most needed and will generate the best returns. That does not only mean identifying the right technologies and materials. We also need to work out which companies are making a success of the decarbonisation-driven trends in their sector and are able to generate good returns on capital.

This report examines two commodity markets that are essential to the net-zero transition, copper and steel, and considers the investment outlook.

作者

George Cheveley
投資組合經理

重要資訊

本文的資訊可能會討論一般的市場活動或行業趨勢,不擬作為預測、研究或投資建議的憑據。本文提供的經濟及市場觀點反映晉達資產管理截至所示日期的判斷,可能會隨時更改,恕不另行通知。概不保證所表達的觀點及意見正確無誤,可能未能反映整個晉達資產管理的觀點,按不同的投資目標可能會表達不同的觀點。儘管我們認為來自外部的任何資訊均為可靠的,但我們並未對其作出獨立審核,因此我們不能保證其準確性或完整性。晉達資產管理的內部數據可能未經審核。晉達資產管理未有提供法律或稅務建議。準投資者在作出與稅收相關的投資決定之前,應諮詢其稅務顧問。

本通訊僅視為一般資訊,並非投資邀請,亦不構成提呈出售。投資涉及風險。此並非對任何特定證券作出買入、沽售或持有之建議。概無聲明任何投資將會或可能取得類似過往的利潤或虧損,或將會避免出現重大損失。本文中提及的證券或投資產品可能未有在任何司法管轄區註冊。

於香港,本通訊由晉達資產管理香港有限公司發行,並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會(證監會)審核。

除非另有授權,否則未經晉達資產管理事先書面同意,不得將本文件資料顯示、複製、傳送或以其他方式提供給任何第三方。©2021年晉達資產管理。版權所有。

所列示的過往表現數據並不反映未來表現。投資者應注意,投資帶有風險。投資者應參閱銷售文件以了解詳情,包括風險因素。本網站未經香港證監會審查。

一經點擊以下投資者關係的連結,閣下將離開專為香港零售投資者提供資料的本網站,進入全球網站。

務請注意,全球網站並非以香港投資者為對象。該網站未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)審閱。該網站可能包含未經證監會認可的基金及其他投資產品的資料,因此不得向香港零售投資者銷售。該網站亦可能包含據稱由晉達集團旗下的香港境外公司提供或採取的投資服務/策略的資料。

本網站所載的任何產品文件及資料僅供參考,並供位於有關資料及其使用並無違反當地法律或規例的司法管轄區或國家的人士或實體使用。

發行人:晉達資產管理香港有限公司
電郵:[email protected] 
電話:(852) 2861 6888
傳真:(852) 2861 6861