新興市場債券每月評論 – 2024年8月(只供英文版)

投資團隊將提供新興市場債券市場的最新觀點,並分享最新的前景展望及現時自上而下的部署。

2024年9月11日

12分鐘

新興市場債券團隊

Chapters

01
Market background
02
Top-down views and outlook
03
Africa
04
Asia
05
Latin America
06
Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and South Africa
07
EM corporate highlights
01

Market background

Close-up of dark green leaves
EM fixed income had a strong month, boosted by falling global bond yields and a weaker US dollar. In the local currency market, returns were driven primarily by EM FX, but rates also generated positive returns. Among hard currency bonds, while concerns over the global macroeconomic outlook weighed on some high-yield markets early in the month, a subsequent rally in risk assets prompted a recovery.

With ongoing signs of a slowing global economy and falling inflation, government bond yields (rates) continued to fall, reflecting in positive returns across fixed income markets.

Surprisingly weak data in the US labour market caused some alarm among market participants early in the month, before subsequent data releases again supported the outlook for a soft economic landing in the US, rather than a recession. More dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided additional support for bond markets and risk sentiment later in the month.

All of this led to a weaker US dollar over the month, with many EM currencies benefiting from this, although rising interest rates in Japan are reducing the relative attractiveness of holding EM currencies against the yen – this was again reflected in traditionally 'high carry' markets in Latin America underperforming. In contrast, 'Asia's EM local currency debt markets were key beneficiaries of the dovish shift by the Fed; falling US interest rates will allow Asian central banks to bring forward their own rate cuts.

Against this backdrop, the asset class had a strong month. In the local currency space, the JP Morgan GBI-EM returned 3.1%, driven primarily by EM FX but with healthy moves in rates markets. While concerns over the global macroeconomic outlook weighed on some high-yield hard currency markets early in the month, a subsequent rally in risk assets prompted a recovery there; overall, the sovereign index (JP Morgan EMBI GD) rose by 2.3%.

作者

新興市場債券團隊

重要資訊

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