親臨現場：從不同視角解讀國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)春季會議（只供英文版）

An important event in EM investors’ calendars

With the global macroeconomic implications of conflict in the Middle East dominating commentary around this year’s IMF/World Bank meetings, it’s easy to miss important signals for long-term investors in EM debt. With a combined 50+ IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings under their belts, our EM experts are well placed to look through the noise.

Prudence pays on an increasingly uneven playing field

This year's Spring Meetings took place against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty – around the duration of conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the inflation and growth outlook. Yet a dominant theme was one of resilience, with many emerging market (EM) economies holding firm as pressure begins to weigh on Europe and beyond.

Faced with a major oil-price shock, EM economies told a consistent story of reaping the benefits of reforms and buffers built up over recent years. From Uruguay entering the crisis with inflation already below target and three months of strategic fuel reserves, to Benin’s successful macro adjustments under an IMF programme, many EM economies are on firm foundations. The result has been a notable absence of widespread stress across the EM credit rating spectrum.

That should not come as a surprise. For several years we have highlighted the structural reforms that have taken place across the EM universe – from Latin America to Africa, where policymakers acted decisively in setting a sustainable economic path after the pandemic. But in EM, the exceptions are always as important as the rules and this year’s annual gathering in Washington DC highlighted a diverse outlook for this increasingly heterogeneous asset class. As JPMorgan noted in its post-spring meeting commentary: “EM sovereigns have proven to be much more resilient to shocks than feared a few years ago, but at these valuations, selectivity must also be factored into the prevailing constructive bias.” ¹

Notes from our EM experts

Three members of our EM Debt team travelled to Washington DC and we asked them to share their highlights and pointers for investors. Look out for our forthcoming EM Debt Indicator for more insights. Below you’ll find:

• Key observations in the words of the team.
• Market-specific highlights and lowlights.
• Snippets from behind the scenes – the kind of things you won’t read about in the press.

Thys Louw (focus: Africa)

Visiting Washington, DC in the wake of the energy price shock, I braced for a very negative mood on the ground. Instead, I found cause for cautious optimism. The word ‘resilience’ shone out: the painful reforms that many of these markets have pushed through in recent years are paying off – creating valuable fiscal and external buffers. That is notable in frontier markets like Egypt and Nigeria, where structural change is clear to see.

The ones to watch

• Egypt: meetings were more constructive than expected and confirmed improving fiscal metrics and continued reserve accumulation. If the regional shock of the crisis fades, local assets could be well placed to benefit.
• Benin: this is a poster child for IMF programmes, with clear signs of macro-adjustment success – I expect a follow-on programme with the IMF soon. Benin is somewhat insulated from the oil shock for the time being, as it buys most of its annual supply in advance.

Where to be wary

• Mozambique: the government's temptation to rely on gas (LNG) export revenues is undermining any genuine appetite for the fiscal adjustment the IMF requires, with the Middle East conflict compounding an already fragile FX situation.
• Central Africa: although the market has looked for sources of optimism – e.g., around the potential for an IMF programme for Republic of the Congo – meetings gave me cause for concern around the pace of fiscal reform in countries like Gabon. An absence of momentum in that regard is likely to mean markets in this region continue to struggle to find liquidity in the face of looming local debt rollovers.

Behind the scenes

This year was a reminder that we are living in a world where shocks have become more frequent and the initial reactions from African policymakers have been to not shy away from hard decisions relative to previous crises. From conversations with policymakers, I gleaned a growing recognition that the days of experimenting with unorthodox policies are limited; the focus has shifted to how countries can reduce fragility to these external shocks. While there will still be a role for the IMF, the key for frontier markets is to improve transparency, broaden fiscal revenues, increase quality of investment and diversify borrowing sources. More and more policymakers grasp this as the number of economies that provide a template/act as a role model continues to grow.

Aurelie Martin (focus: CEEMEA)

The IMF meetings provide an invaluable opportunity to meet many policymakers from central banks and ministries of finance over several days. The packed agenda also includes various discussions with IMF staff, which are particularly informative for investors – providing a candid assessment of the path economies are on. What stood out for me this year was the number of markets that – in today’s testing times – are reaping the benefits of prudent policymaking of recent years.

The ones to watch

• Turkey: the central bank governor provided one of the clearest policy messages of the week. The recent stabilisation of FX reserves after a very sharp drop at the start of the war and the absence of meaningful household dollarisation through the oil-price shock suggests that the policy framework is resilient.
• Uzbekistan: this is a compelling EM story, with broad-based reform momentum and commitment at the highest political level to the inflation target, in an economy that’s well-positioned to absorb external shocks. Uzbekistan entered the crisis on strong footing thanks to record growth – helped also by favourable commodity prices – and declining twin deficits.

Where to be wary

• Bahrain: this is the only Gulf economy that the IMF forecasts to contract this year. Debt dynamics were already unsustainable and war in the Middle East has weighed heavily on oil, aluminium and tourism revenues, leaving the financing path unclear. Bahrain stands out from its regional peers – most of which have built exceptionally large savings and buffers over the years, which are helping to withstand the current shock.
• CEE 4 (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania): before the shock, rate-cutting was expected to continue at some point over the next year as inflation was expected to continue decreasing or stabilising in these four economies. With inflation dynamics now more uncertain and possibly unfavourable if the conflict is sustained, these central banks all said that they were now in a wait-and-see mode.

Behind the scenes

In addition to engaging with policymakers and IMF officials, the meetings in Washington also provide an opportunity to see and exchange views with many other investors. This is valuable as it gives a better sense of the temperature of the market and positioning – providing useful context for our own high-conviction views.

Nicolas Jaquier (focus: Latin America)

This year’s meetings really showcased the diversity of the Latin American opportunity set and highlighted some strong structural stories behind all the election noise in the region. Highlights included some of the larger economies in the region that are in a position of strength to weather the geopolitical shock. Brazil's terms-of-trade are increasingly supportive and the central bank is on the front foot, while the Argentina reform story is on track and the country's energy boom is set to accelerate.

The ones to watch

• Brazil: the country is insulated from geopolitical shocks as it is a net energy exporter and the central bank has been on the front-foot – while it monitors the risk of second-round effects from the oil price shock, it is still one of the only central banks globally that is set to continue cutting rates.
• Argentina: the bold reformer. Policymakers clearly remain committed to reform and the ‘deregulation’ story is the most interesting medium-term theme in the region.

Where to be wary

• Peru: election risk looms large. Peru is missing its fiscal targets and there’s a significant structural drag from illegal mining. A change to the central bank’s governance is a big tail risk for markets.
• Colombia: after four years of Petro’s presidency, it’s clear that fiscal deterioration has continued apace, which is now compounded by the government’s attacks on the independence of the central bank and deterioration of the institution’s credibility. The coming election could put an end to this, but the next administration will have its work cut out to redress the fiscal situation.

Behind the scenes

Some of the most useful information is gained outside of formal meetings. In between official sessions involving IMF officials, central bankers, finance ministers and other officials, conversations with lower-level officials often provide an unpolished view of what's really happening domestically. This year, much of that colour centred on Colombia, where the public credit office's debt operations have generated considerable disbelief among investors. While the strategy has nominally reduced interest expenditures on paper, the erratic decision-making has left markets perpetually second-guessing the next move - in the process obscuring what are, in our view, deteriorating underlying fundamentals. The lack of transparency, and the likely transaction costs embedded in such a volume of operations, have only added to the unease.

¹ JPMorgan, EM takeaways from the 2026 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, 21 April 2026.