The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

El Niño is brewing a third inflation shock, which markets have yet to price in

El Niño is converging with the Middle East energy shock and fertilizer supply disruptions to create a compounding inflation risk that markets have barely begun to account for. Nicolas Jaquier draws on IMF research showing El Niño has historically driven a fifth of global commodity price swings, and explains why Brazil and Argentina are better placed to absorb the shock than Southeast Asia and Colombia.

25 Aug 2026

10 minutes

Nicolas Jaquier
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