Positioning for the next play

In sport, momentum can swing in a heartbeat. A captain might reshuffle fielding positions, a bowler might deliver a game-changing yorker, or Rassie might unleash the ‘Bomb Squad’ at just the right moment. Winning teams aren’t those chasing every play; they’re the ones reading the rhythm of the game and positioning for what’s next. It’s the difference between kids chasing the ball haphazardly and professionals anticipating where it will land.

If we extend this analogy to investing, are we on the cusp of a momentum shift? And if so, are you positioned for the next play?

For much of the past decade, investors in South Africa were rewarded for playing defence. Conservative investors seeking income were well compensated, thanks to significant real yields and steady returns on offer. It’s no surprise that income funds attracted the lion’s share of unit trust flows, while household bank deposits surged to nearly R1.9 trillion. Yet, the ‘free lunch’ of high real yields is fading. With rates likely to move lower and inflation stabilising, the defensive line-up that worked so well may no longer be sufficient.

We believe the game is changing. A weaker dollar and a more supportive rate environment are laying the foundations for a new offensive play. After the dominance of US exceptionalism, the opportunity set is widening, not only across emerging market equities, but also in select developed regions where valuations have reset and fundamentals are improving. Historical realised returns compared with expected forward returns suggest investors could face a markedly different outlook than the one that shaped the past decade. The challenge now is not whether capital will be deployed, but how and when to bring it into play.

A new investment landscape takes shape

Global markets – returns in USD

South Africa – returns in ZAR

Source: Bloomberg and Ninety One’s 2025 Capital Market Assumptions, as at 30 September 2025. These estimates are gross of fees (returns can be reduced by management fees and other expenses incurred) and reflect the view of Ninety One’s multi-asset team, while the views of other teams across Ninety One may differ. Performance does not guarantee future results. Actual returns could be materially higher or lower than projected.

Globally, the investment playbook is also evolving. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become a US$17.1 trillion market, projected to reach US$25 trillion by 2030.¹ Crucially, the fastest-growing segment is no longer passive trackers, but actively managed ETFs (AMETFs). Nearly half of all new ETF launches in 2024 were AMETFs, and global assets in the segment are expected to quadruple to US$4 trillion within 5 years. This growth reflects investor demand for tools that combine the liquidity and efficiency of listed instruments with the insight and adaptability of active management.

Closer to home, Ninety One is playing its part in this evolution. We’re excited to announce the launch of our first AMETFs, with which we’re expanding access to our active strategies in a listed format. This is an important milestone for our South African business and reflects not only our commitment to innovation but also to evolving with client needs.

Ninety One Actively managed ETFs

And just as teams renew themselves for the next season, so too does ours. The appointment of David Knee as Head of Global Multi-Asset and Horatius Maluleka as South Africa CIO adds both depth and fresh energy to our leadership. Their arrival strengthens collaboration across asset classes, enhances our research-led approach, and ensures we have the right blend of experience and innovation to navigate the next phase of the game.

Success, in markets as in sport, is rarely about a single spectacular move. It is built on resilience, adaptability, and the readiness to act when the opening comes. The Springboks’ recent World Cup and Rugby Championship triumphs remind us that not every match needs to be won to lift the ultimate trophy. Roger Federer, too, won barely more than half the points he ever played, yet converted that into more than 80% of matches and 20 Grand Slam titles. The lesson is clear: you don’t need to win every point – you need to win the right ones.

As investors, our challenge is the same: stay disciplined, build depth in the squad, and have the conviction to take the shot when it matters most. That is how long-term success is forged: not in chasing every trend, but in being positioned for the moments that count.

Thank you for your continued support.

Siobhan Simpson
Head of SA Unit Trusts

¹ www.ey.com