Navigating change with Hendrik du Toit

Oil shock: when geopolitics shuts the taps

Oil markets have reacted sharply to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Gooden, Head of Global Natural Resources at Ninety One, explains why the disruption is reverberating through oil and gas markets, how supply constraints are pushing prices higher, and what it could mean for energy markets in the weeks and months ahead.

February in review

Financial markets were broadly positive in February. US Treasury yields declined and global equities posted gains on resilient economic data. However, technology stocks had a weaker month, selling off amid concerns about potential disruption from AI. Commodities were again strong: precious metals continued to rally, while oil prices rose, partly on fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. US-Israeli strikes on Iran took place on the final day of the month after most financial markets had closed. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed last year, although new levies were soon introduced via an alternative legal route.

War in the Gulf

War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.

Global Equity: A resurgence of core

Global equities are entering a new regime that looks very different from the last decade. As market leadership broadens and rotations accelerate, investors are reassessing the role of core within portfolios.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2026

Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.

Boots on the ground: a different perspective on the IMF Spring Meetings

Three members of our EM Debt team went to Washington, DC – we asked them to share their highlights and pointers for investors, including a behind-the-scenes perspective on this important annual event.

Picture this: in today’s credit markets, the real risks lurk in the shadows

Recent news headlines have driven up scrutiny of private credit market risks and sparked a sell-off in mainstream public credit markets. But market moves mask a divergent picture of risk exposure. Our Multi Asset Credit team explains how credit investors can navigate the risks and take advantage of attractive valuations.

Private debt: hidden strengths in emerging markets

Pressure is building in US private debt as weaker underwriting standards, rising defaults and AI-disruption risks combine to create a perfect storm. In contrast, investors in emerging markets can access asset-heavy borrowers, in deal structures that offer higher senior-secured yields and stronger protections.

Hidden GEMs: Why the oil shock could accelerate the energy transition

Oil shocks don’t just disrupt, they accelerate change. Higher prices and energy insecurity are fast-tracking the shift to electrification and clean technology, led by emerging markets.

Credit investing in a higher-risk private market regime

Concerns around risk in private markets have prompted a reassessment of the asset class and driven a sell-off across developed credit markets. Yet significant differences in underlying risk mean active investors can find shelter, quality and value in the broader public credit market.

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – March 2026

Reflections on developments across the EM Debt investment universe in March, and the EM Debt team's latest outlook and positioning.

Q1 in review

Global markets took a decisive turn in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, as early optimism gave way to a geopolitical shock. A strong start to the year was derailed by escalating conflict in the Middle East, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing a rapid re-pricing of interest rate expectations. The result was a broad-based risk-off move across global markets, with macroeconomic factors reasserting themselves as the primary drivers of market performance.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

Emerging market debt: unlocking the full potential

Shifting asset class behaviour is forcing a rethink of allocation approaches and fuelling demand for greater diversification. In this context, emerging market debt is highly relevant, but implementation is key.

The new commodity order: geopolitics, AI and the scramble for resources

A new commodity order is taking shape, defined by geopolitical fragmentation, electrification, supply constraints, regionalisation of energy and materials markets, and a re-ordering of global supply chains.

EM debt: the evolution of an asset class

EM debt has become an important component of the global debt market. The transformation has resulted in robust credit quality across a highly diverse opportunity set that’s ripe with alpha-capture potential.

Is the Iran crisis an early 2020 moment for markets?

War in the Middle East and the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz has potentially introduced a stagflationary shock at a time when markets were positioned for a goldilocks or reflationary backdrop. There are three parallels to the early 2020 dynamic that investors should note, according to Sahil Mahtani, Director, Investment Institute.

The physical reality of an oil shock

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe global oil supply shock, leaving the market with a deficit that available alternatives cannot meaningfully offset. While prices have yet to fully reflect the strain, tightening inventories and disrupted flows point to higher near-term volatility and a lasting shift in the oil price outlook.

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – February 2026

Reflections on developments across the EM Debt investment universe in February, with an update on portfolio positioning in the context of the current conflict in the Middle East.

Reassessing emerging market equity allocations

Market conditions appear to be shifting in favour of emerging market equities. We explore how to structure an allocation to achieve broad exposure to the return-potential of the asset class while managing risks.

Oil shock: when geopolitics shuts the taps

Oil markets have reacted sharply to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Gooden, Head of Global Natural Resources at Ninety One, explains why the disruption is reverberating through oil and gas markets, how supply constraints are pushing prices higher, and what it could mean for energy markets in the weeks and months ahead.

February in review

Financial markets were broadly positive in February. US Treasury yields declined and global equities posted gains on resilient economic data. However, technology stocks had a weaker month, selling off amid concerns about potential disruption from AI. Commodities were again strong: precious metals continued to rally, while oil prices rose, partly on fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. US-Israeli strikes on Iran took place on the final day of the month after most financial markets had closed. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed last year, although new levies were soon introduced via an alternative legal route.

War in the Gulf

War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.

Global Equity: A resurgence of core

Global equities are entering a new regime that looks very different from the last decade. As market leadership broadens and rotations accelerate, investors are reassessing the role of core within portfolios.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2026

Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.

Boots on the ground: a different perspective on the IMF Spring Meetings

Three members of our EM Debt team went to Washington, DC – we asked them to share their highlights and pointers for investors, including a behind-the-scenes perspective on this important annual event.

Picture this: in today’s credit markets, the real risks lurk in the shadows

Recent news headlines have driven up scrutiny of private credit market risks and sparked a sell-off in mainstream public credit markets. But market moves mask a divergent picture of risk exposure. Our Multi Asset Credit team explains how credit investors can navigate the risks and take advantage of attractive valuations.

Private debt: hidden strengths in emerging markets

Pressure is building in US private debt as weaker underwriting standards, rising defaults and AI-disruption risks combine to create a perfect storm. In contrast, investors in emerging markets can access asset-heavy borrowers, in deal structures that offer higher senior-secured yields and stronger protections.

Hidden GEMs: Why the oil shock could accelerate the energy transition

Oil shocks don’t just disrupt, they accelerate change. Higher prices and energy insecurity are fast-tracking the shift to electrification and clean technology, led by emerging markets.

Credit investing in a higher-risk private market regime

Concerns around risk in private markets have prompted a reassessment of the asset class and driven a sell-off across developed credit markets. Yet significant differences in underlying risk mean active investors can find shelter, quality and value in the broader public credit market.

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – March 2026

Reflections on developments across the EM Debt investment universe in March, and the EM Debt team's latest outlook and positioning.

Q1 in review

Global markets took a decisive turn in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, as early optimism gave way to a geopolitical shock. A strong start to the year was derailed by escalating conflict in the Middle East, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing a rapid re-pricing of interest rate expectations. The result was a broad-based risk-off move across global markets, with macroeconomic factors reasserting themselves as the primary drivers of market performance.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

Emerging market debt: unlocking the full potential

Shifting asset class behaviour is forcing a rethink of allocation approaches and fuelling demand for greater diversification. In this context, emerging market debt is highly relevant, but implementation is key.

The new commodity order: geopolitics, AI and the scramble for resources

A new commodity order is taking shape, defined by geopolitical fragmentation, electrification, supply constraints, regionalisation of energy and materials markets, and a re-ordering of global supply chains.

EM debt: the evolution of an asset class

EM debt has become an important component of the global debt market. The transformation has resulted in robust credit quality across a highly diverse opportunity set that’s ripe with alpha-capture potential.

Is the Iran crisis an early 2020 moment for markets?

War in the Middle East and the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz has potentially introduced a stagflationary shock at a time when markets were positioned for a goldilocks or reflationary backdrop. There are three parallels to the early 2020 dynamic that investors should note, according to Sahil Mahtani, Director, Investment Institute.

The physical reality of an oil shock

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe global oil supply shock, leaving the market with a deficit that available alternatives cannot meaningfully offset. While prices have yet to fully reflect the strain, tightening inventories and disrupted flows point to higher near-term volatility and a lasting shift in the oil price outlook.

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – February 2026

Reflections on developments across the EM Debt investment universe in February, with an update on portfolio positioning in the context of the current conflict in the Middle East.

Reassessing emerging market equity allocations

Market conditions appear to be shifting in favour of emerging market equities. We explore how to structure an allocation to achieve broad exposure to the return-potential of the asset class while managing risks.

Oil shock: when geopolitics shuts the taps

Oil markets have reacted sharply to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Gooden, Head of Global Natural Resources at Ninety One, explains why the disruption is reverberating through oil and gas markets, how supply constraints are pushing prices higher, and what it could mean for energy markets in the weeks and months ahead.

February in review

Financial markets were broadly positive in February. US Treasury yields declined and global equities posted gains on resilient economic data. However, technology stocks had a weaker month, selling off amid concerns about potential disruption from AI. Commodities were again strong: precious metals continued to rally, while oil prices rose, partly on fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. US-Israeli strikes on Iran took place on the final day of the month after most financial markets had closed. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed last year, although new levies were soon introduced via an alternative legal route.

War in the Gulf

War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.

Global Equity: A resurgence of core

Global equities are entering a new regime that looks very different from the last decade. As market leadership broadens and rotations accelerate, investors are reassessing the role of core within portfolios.

Navigating change with Hendrik du Toit

Watch the recording of Hendrik du Toit (Founder and CEO of Ninety One) and Peter Kent (Co-Head of Global Emerging Market Fixed Income) in conversation with business journalist Bronwyn Nielsen.

Hendrik du Toit

Peter Kent

Authored by

Hendrik du Toit

Chief Executive Officer

Peter Kent

Co-Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income

Latest insights

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2026

Boots on the ground: a different perspective on the IMF Spring Meetings

Picture this: in today’s credit markets, the real risks lurk in the shadows

Private debt: hidden strengths in emerging markets

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