目錄
市場觀察
環球經濟增長信號喜憂參半
Iain Cunningham – 多元資產增長策略聯席主管
美國有望實現軟著陸
美國方面，貨幣政策趨緊，整體經濟活動持續放緩。因此，聯儲局開始減息，暗示不會容忍美國勞工市場進一步惡化。金融市場仍然波動，一方面是有可能經濟進一步放緩及聯儲局反應過於遲緩，另一方面是有可能經濟軟著陸輔以減息及寬鬆金融環境的刺激效應，投資者正在拉鋸。美國財政政策仍然寬鬆，繼續支撐經濟增長，11月舉行的大選可能導致不確定性增加，進而引發金融市場的動盪。我們認為經濟進一步放緩的風險增加，但考慮到貨幣政策放寬的前景、持續的財政支持行動，以及仍然相對穩健的經濟增長，我們認為軟著陸是美國目前的核心情境。
歐元區經濟增長或令人失望
歐洲方面，我們認為由於疫情相關的刺激措施減少、浮息債務水平上升及財政支持減少，政策偏向緊縮，其滯後效應持續時間低於美國。一些國家的增長指標疲軟，不但低於趨勢水平，亦接近經濟衰退，而短期通脹指標目前與歐洲央行的目標一致。我們預計歐元區經濟增長目前維持疲弱，而隨著能源價格壓力減輕，通脹將繼續降溫。由於歐元區面臨結構性不利因素而美國擁有有利因素，我們相信歐洲央行的貨幣寬鬆週期最終將超過聯儲局的貨幣寬鬆週期。
中國經濟復甦前景不定
中國方面，政策似乎有所放寬，但並未落實重大寬鬆措施。然而，寬鬆措施的力度逐漸加大，過去一個月公佈的一連串新舉措帶動中國內地和香港股市大幅飆升。我們預計政策官員將盡其所能確保經濟持續復甦。增長指標仍參差不齊，復甦之路仍不順遂。通脹仍然疲弱，但展望未來，基數效應會開始提供更多支持作用。我們繼續相信，中國經濟將迎來較佳的結果，而不會陷入市場普遍預測的悲觀局面。
展望未來
如上文所述，我們的核心投資路線圖令我們對風險資產，尤其是亞洲和美國風險資產的前景稍為樂觀。固定收益方面，鑑於經濟衰退的風險增加，我們仍維持合理的防禦型政府債券持倉。倘若未來六個月內市場頻繁波動，該持倉還會為我們提供彈藥儲備。貨幣方面，由於利差走勢正面，以及我們預期歐洲及亞洲的寬鬆政策將較美國有力，相對這些地區的貨幣，我們維持對美元的偏好，藉此分散投資組合持倉的風險。
General risks. The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise. Where charges are taken from capital, this may constrain future growth. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If any currency differs from the investor’s home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Investment objectives and performance targets are subject to change and may not necessarily be achieved, losses may be made. Environmental, social or governance related risk events or factors, if they occur, could cause a negative impact on the value of investments.
Specific risks. Currency exchange: Changes in the relative values of different currencies may adversely affect the value of investments and any related income. Emerging market (inc. China): These markets carry a higher risk of financial loss than more developed markets as they may have less developed legal, political, economic or other systems. Commodity related investment: Commodity prices can be extremely volatile and significant losses may be made. Default: There is a risk that the issuers of fixed income investments (e.g. bonds) may not be able to meet interest payments nor repay the money they have borrowed. The worse the credit quality of the issuer, the greater the risk of default and therefore investment loss. Equity investment: The value of equities (e.g. shares) and equity-related investments may vary according to company profits and future prospects as well as more general market factors. In the event of a company default (e.g. insolvency), the owners of their equity rank last in terms of any financial payment from that company.
