多元資產季度評論 – 2024年12月（只供英文版）

Navigating global shifts: Inflation, easing and uncertainty

Iain Cunningham – Head of Multi-Asset Growth

Mixed signals for US inflation

In the US, monetary policy has been eased to support growth and protect the labour market. However, Trump’s election victory has introduced uncertainty regarding inflation. In response, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be more cautious about further easing. Policies of deregulation and tax cuts are expected to bolster growth, while tariffs and proposed immigration measures may exert upward pressure on inflation. Our central outlook for the US economy in 2025 anticipates relatively robust growth, with inflation consolidating toward target despite some volatility. Higher bond yields and uncertainties around trade policies could contribute to near-term volatility in US risk assets.

ECB easing continues

In Europe, monetary policy has also been eased, but conditions remain relatively tight. Growth indicators have been weak, with some countries nearing recession, while short-term inflation measures align with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. We expect eurozone growth to remain subdued and inflation to moderate further. The ECB’s easing cycle is likely to be more pronounced than the Fed’s, given structural challenges in the eurozone and risks posed by potential US tariffs.

China doubles down on stimulus

In China, easing measures are becoming increasingly aggressive, with policymakers prioritising domestic demand expansion. Additional announcements are expected following recent key policy meetings. Authorities appear determined to ensure a sustained recovery, though growth remains uneven and inflation weak. However, base effects should provide some inflationary support going forward. We believe the Chinese economy will fare better than bearish consensus views suggest, given the escalating policy response.

Positioning for uncertainty

Reflecting our central investment roadmap, we reduced exposure to US equities in December and early January, recognising elevated sentiment and heightened uncertainty surrounding tariffs in the first half of the year. This positioning enables us to take advantage of potential market weaknesses. In fixed income, we maintain a significant allocation to defensive government bonds to hedge downside risks and prepare for opportunities during market volatility. In currency, active positions remain limited, with the US dollar at a pivotal juncture. Its trajectory will likely hinge on the Trump administration’s trade policies in the months ahead.