Emerging markets: cycles past and future

What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter?

2019 M02 20

28 minutes

What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter?

A new cycle is on the horizon

With the US economy cooling down and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets (EM) is appearing on the horizon.

There have been two starkly different cycles in emerging markets over the past 15 years: a stellar ascent from 2003 to 2012, characterised by strong growth and high returns; and a largely disappointing era from 2013 to 2018, marked by lacklustre performance and stubborn headwinds.

For EM equities, the stellar ascent was interrupted by the global financial crisis. However, markets recovered well in 2009 to provide double-digit returns for equity investors who held their nerve across the 2003-2012 timeframe.

These earlier regimes have a lot to tell us about what to expect from the next cycle, though we think investors anticipating a repeat of either period will miss the mark.

Throughout the advances and reversals of the past decade and a half, emerging markets have been coming of age as an asset class. We believe emerging economies are well positioned having worked through fragilities in the recent cycle. Fundamentals are now in a much better position again and we believe valuations do not reflect this strength. As such, in our view, emerging market assets are poised to outperform developed markets over the next cycle.

We think it’s time to re-anchor expectations and reassess the case for emerging markets – not only as an allocation with the potential to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns over the medium term, but also as a long-term structural holding within a broader portfolio.

In this paper, we analyse past cycles and assess what they can tell us about the next chapter in emerging markets.

Read the paper

作者

Peter Eerdmans

Portfolio Manager, Head of Fixed Income and Co-Head of Emerging Market Sovereign & FX

Important Information

This communication is provided for general information only should not be construed as advice.

All the information in is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. The views are those of the contributor at the time of publication and do not necessary reflect those of Ninety One.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

All rights reserved. Issued by Ninety One.

所列示的過往表現數據並不反映未來表現。投資者應注意,投資帶有風險。投資者應參閱銷售文件以了解詳情,包括風險因素。本網站未經香港證監會審查。

一經點擊以下投資者關係的連結,閣下將離開專為香港零售投資者提供資料的本網站,進入全球網站。

務請注意,全球網站並非以香港投資者為對象。該網站未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)審閱。該網站可能包含未經證監會認可的基金及其他投資產品的資料,因此不得向香港零售投資者銷售。該網站亦可能包含據稱由晉達集團旗下的香港境外公司提供或採取的投資服務/策略的資料。

本網站所載的任何產品文件及資料僅供參考,並供位於有關資料及其使用並無違反當地法律或規例的司法管轄區或國家的人士或實體使用。

發行人:晉達資產管理香港有限公司
電郵:[email protected] 
電話:(852) 2861 6888
傳真:(852) 2861 6861