新興市場展望

新興市場債券每月評論 – 2021年5月(只供英文版)

我們的硬貨幣債券投資組合經理研究前緣市場的發展,並展示此市場如何對當今投資者日趨重要。同時我們探討近期的地區發展,並提供在新興市場債券的前景展望。

2021 M06 7

22分鐘

我們的硬貨幣債券投資組合經理研究前緣市場的發展,並展示此市場如何對當今投資者日趨重要。同時我們探討近期的地區發展,並提供在新興市場債券的前景展望。

This edition includes:

  • Market background
  • Top-down views and outlook
  • Insights from the team
    • The frontier market misnomer: Managers of our hard currency EM debt strategy, Werner Gey van Pittius and Thys Louw, discuss the world of frontier markets and reveal their increasing importance for EM debt investors today.
  • Regional highlights
    • Our EM Fixed Income team summarises May’s market developments across the EM sovereign debt universe.


Download the PDF

The fast view

Market Background

  • The JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged Index produced a total return of 2.5% in US dollar terms, while the JP Morgan EM Bond Index returned 1.1%.
  • Investors were more cautious in response to a sharp rise in US inflation data during the month.

Africa

  • PMI’s across the region ticked higher, with Zambia’s PMI moving into expansionary territory for the first time in two years.
  • Inflation fell across many of the region’s markets, with Egypt’s inflation dropping to 4.1% in April on the back of falling food prices.

Asia

  • The slow pace of vaccine rollouts meant even relatively small increases in COVID cases prompted lockdowns in the region which weighed on domestic demand.
  • However, external dynamics remain robust, and the reopening of the global economy is giving a significant boost to the region’s exports.

Latin America

  • The region’s COVID vaccination drive shifted up a gear with solid progress being made in Chile and Uruguay, although the latter is in the midst of a severe second wave.
  • Political uncertainty and protests remained a feature in some countries. In contrast, highlights included Argentina (positive dynamics re. repayment agreements with the Paris Club) and Mexico (benefiting from US fiscal stimulus and strong remittances).

CEE

  • The region’s COVID situation is much improved thanks to relatively tough lockdowns and a pick-up in the rate of vaccinations, allowing economies to reopen.
  • An intensification of inflationary pressures, partly due to a strong rebound in economic activity, prompted several of the region’s central banks to shift to a more hawkish stance.

Rest of EMEA

  • Russian assets benefited from improving geopolitical news flow as the country’s foreign minister met the US Secretary of State, with both committing to a normalisation of relations.
  • In Turkey the central bank continues to try to appear prudent and dispel concerns that it will cut rates too quickly, but the sacking of a deputy governor underscores risks around monetary policy, as did the early June comments from Erdogan on the need for rate cuts.

 

作者

新興市場債券團隊

重要資訊

本文的資訊可能會討論一般的市場活動或行業趨勢,不擬作為預測、研究或投資建議的憑據。本文提供的經濟及市場觀點反映晉達資產管理截至所示日期的判斷,可能會隨時更改,恕不另行通知。概不保證所表達的觀點及意見正確無誤,可能未能反映整個晉達資產管理的觀點,按不同的投資目標可能會表達不同的觀點。儘管我們認為來自外部的任何資訊均為可靠的,但我們並未對其作出獨立審核,因此我們不能保證其準確性或完整性。晉達資產管理的內部數據可能未經審核。晉達資產管理未有提供法律或稅務建議。準投資者在作出與稅收相關的投資決定之前,應諮詢其稅務顧問。

本通訊僅視為一般資訊,並非投資邀請,亦不構成提呈出售。投資涉及風險。此並非對任何特定證券作出買入、沽售或持有之建議。概無聲明任何投資將會或可能取得類似過往的利潤或虧損,或將會避免出現重大損失。本文中提及的證券或投資產品可能未有在任何司法管轄區註冊。

於香港,本通訊由晉達資產管理香港有限公司發行,並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會(證監會)審核。

除非另有授權,否則未經晉達資產管理事先書面同意,不得將本文件資料顯示、複製、傳送或以其他方式提供給任何第三方。©2021年晉達資產管理。版權所有。

所列示的過往表現數據並不反映未來表現。投資者應注意,投資帶有風險。投資者應參閱銷售文件以了解詳情,包括風險因素。本網站未經香港證監會審查。

一經點擊以下投資者關係的連結,閣下將離開專為香港零售投資者提供資料的本網站,進入全球網站。

務請注意,全球網站並非以香港投資者為對象。該網站未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)審閱。該網站可能包含未經證監會認可的基金及其他投資產品的資料,因此不得向香港零售投資者銷售。該網站亦可能包含據稱由晉達集團旗下的香港境外公司提供或採取的投資服務/策略的資料。

本網站所載的任何產品文件及資料僅供參考,並供位於有關資料及其使用並無違反當地法律或規例的司法管轄區或國家的人士或實體使用。

發行人:晉達資產管理香港有限公司
電郵:[email protected] 
電話:(852) 2861 6888
傳真:(852) 2861 6861