新興市場債券每月評論 – 2022年8月(只供英文版)

投資組合經理Grant Webster回應在最近的路演中新興市場債券投資者提出的一些重要問題。而投資團隊亦探討投資領域的最新發展。

2022年9月12日

21分鐘

新興市場債券團隊

This edition includes:

  • Market background
  • Top-down views and outlook for the asset class
  • Focus article: EM Debt Q&A: Exploring a more constructive outlook
  • Regional highlights and corporate credit market review
    Our EM debt experts summarise market developments across the sovereign debt universe in August and outline what’s taken place in the EM corporate credit market.


Download PDF

The fast view

Market background

Government bond yields across developed markets rose in August, as policymakers turned more hawkish to battle persistent inflationary pressures. This was particularly pronounced in Europe, where gas prices have continued to spiral upwards, adding to already high cost of living pressures.

Africa

Ghana finally approached the IMF for a US$3 billion deal, while in Zambia, the IMF approved a US$1.3 billion financing program. In a positive sign for Kenya’s democratic process, the Supreme Court upheld the result of the presidential election, with a victory for William Ruto.

Asia

There was a clear divergence between the tech-exporting north and the services-driven south-east region, with trade data disappointing across South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Data in China was weak across the board and increased COVID cases led to more lockdowns.

Latin America

Central banks in Brazil and Colombia hiked interest rates, with inflation in the former appearing to reach a peak over August. Inflation surprised on the upside in Chile and Peru, while Q2 GDP data in Mexico was slightly better than expected.

Central and Eastern Europe

Inflationary pressures broadly persisted across the region and governments are taking steps to contain energy price increases. The Czech National Bank kept interest rates on hold, in contrast to Hungary’s central bank, which raised rates as inflation dynamics are poor.

Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)

Russia continued to restrict gas supplies to the EU. Ukraine successfully negotiated a freeze on external debt repayments, which bond holders approved. Growth data in South Africa remains weak. In the Middle East, the weaker oil price put more pressure on OPEC to amend production plans.

EM corporate debt highlights

EM Corporate debt (JP Morgan CEMBI BD) produced a marginally positive return in August, despite the significant continued sell-off in Treasuries, materially outperforming both the US investment-grade and high-yield markets. Positive returns in EM were driven by spread tightening, with the high-yield segment of the market outperforming investment grade.

作者

新興市場債券團隊

重要資訊

本文的資訊可能會討論一般的市場活動或行業趨勢,不擬作為預測、研究或投資建議的憑據。本文提供的經濟及市場觀點反映晉達資產管理截至所示日期的判斷,可能會隨時更改,恕不另行通知。概不保證所表達的觀點及意見正確無誤,可能未能反映整個晉達資產管理的觀點,按不同的投資目標可能會表達不同的觀點。儘管我們認為來自外部的任何資訊均為可靠的,但我們並未對其作出獨立審核,因此我們不能保證其準確性或完整性。晉達資產管理的內部數據可能未經審核。晉達資產管理未有提供法律或稅務建議。準投資者在作出與稅收相關的投資決定之前,應諮詢其稅務顧問。

本通訊僅視為一般資訊,並非投資邀請,亦不構成提呈出售。投資涉及風險。此並非對任何特定證券作出買入、沽售或持有之建議。概無聲明任何投資將會或可能取得類似過往的利潤或虧損,或將會避免出現重大損失。本文中提及的證券或投資產品可能未有在任何司法管轄區註冊。

本通訊可能載有連至由第三方發佈或營運網站的連結。提供此連結不代表對第三方網站中所包含的任何信息有任何關聯、贊助、認可、核准、驗證或監控。晉達資產管理並未審查任何第三方網站的準確性或完整性,亦不對任何第三方網站的內容承擔任何責任,閣下需承擔使用或連至該連結的風險。

於香港,本通訊由晉達資產管理香港有限公司發行,並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會(證監會)審核。

除非另有授權,否則未經晉達資產管理事先書面同意,不得將本文件資料顯示、複製、傳送或以其他方式提供給任何第三方。©2023年晉達資產管理。版權所有。

所列示的過往表現數據並不反映未來表現。投資者應注意,投資帶有風險。投資者應參閱銷售文件以了解詳情,包括風險因素。本網站未經香港證監會審查。

一經點擊以下投資者關係的連結,閣下將離開專為香港零售投資者提供資料的本網站,進入全球網站。

務請注意,全球網站並非以香港投資者為對象。該網站未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)審閱。該網站可能包含未經證監會認可的基金及其他投資產品的資料,因此不得向香港零售投資者銷售。該網站亦可能包含據稱由晉達集團旗下的香港境外公司提供或採取的投資服務/策略的資料。

本網站所載的任何產品文件及資料僅供參考,並供位於有關資料及其使用並無違反當地法律或規例的司法管轄區或國家的人士或實體使用。

發行人:晉達資產管理香港有限公司
電郵:[email protected] 
電話:(852) 2861 6888
傳真:(852) 2861 6861