2022投資觀點:歐洲股票

隨著經濟步向正常化,應對更不可預測的歐洲前景(只供英文版)

歐洲在疫情大規模流行後回復正常,不利因素及其不可預測性或將隨之增加

2021 M11 24

4分鐘

Ken Hsia
歐洲在疫情大規模流行後回復正常,不利因素及其不可預測性或將隨之增加

The fast view

  • Exceptional levels of stimulus have supported post-pandemic regional markets, but economies have yet to catch up.
  • Expect more unpredictability in 2022 as valuation levels and inflation present headwinds.
  • A pro-cyclical stance means we are overweight banks and the consumer discretionary sector.
  • We are also exposed to sectors with pricing power such as paper and packaging, and steel.
  • Lower beta sectors which benefitted from low rates are set to struggle.
  • We are underweight healthcare and consumer staples.
QThere is a lot weighing on European sentiment – national elections, the pandemic, the ECB and post-Brexit bickering. What is the effect on regional markets?

With all those headlines, we might have expected more volatility from regional stocks. Yet markets are at their all-time highs and 60% above the March 2020 pandemic lows. While Europe has benefitted from exceptional levels of stimulus, in GDP terms many of its economies have not yet normalised and in some cases are only now approaching 2019 levels of output.

QWhat are you expecting for 2022?

Almost certainly, there will be more unpredictability. With markets at new peaks, and trading on 16x price-earnings multiples versus a long-term average of 14x, we are now meeting some headwinds. Supply chains are an obvious one, but these are being fixed, and in retrospect, I don’t think they will be regarded as significant. More important are rising energy prices, leading to higher inflation. This could be an issue as Europe is a net importer of oil, gas and other energy sources.

QSo, energy and inflation are interlinked risks. How does that feed into sector opportunities?

While rising energy prices offer a tailwind for the producers, that reverses for companies where energy is a large cost component - we are not exposed to airlines, for example. Elsewhere, we are overweight banks as they are set to benefit from loan growth currently at higher levels than at any time over the past decade, while a normalising interest rate environment means lending margins should also expand. Valuations here do not yet reflect the more attractive outlook, especially on a 10-year view.

QAnd elsewhere, what is your investment strategy?

We are pro-cyclical, which means that we try and maintain a balanced portfolio, keeping our beta close to one. Apart from banks, we are also overweight consumer discretionary, where the pandemic induced closing and reopening of economies has resulted in very mixed earnings momentum and led to a derating for some e-commerce retailers. We believe this is a structurally growing sector.

Against the backdrop of rising inflation, we are also exposed to sectors with pricing power, which enhances the quality of returns over a cycle. This includes paper and packaging, and even steel, where China’s policy of reducing exports reverses its trend of flooding the rest of the world with cheap steel, which should have positive pricing dynamics.

Our underweights include lower beta sectors, which had benefitted from the low interest rate environment, but will now face increasingly negative operating dynamics. This includes healthcare and consumer staples, where raw material price inflation is pressuring margins.

作者

Ken Hsia
投資組合經理

重要資訊

本文的資訊可能會討論一般的市場活動或行業趨勢,不擬作為預測、研究或投資建議的憑據。本文提供的經濟及市場觀點反映晉達資產管理截至所示日期的判斷,可能會隨時更改,恕不另行通知。概不保證所表達的觀點及意見正確無誤,可能未能反映整個晉達資產管理的觀點,按不同的投資目標可能會表達不同的觀點。儘管我們認為來自外部的任何資訊均為可靠的,但我們並未對其作出獨立審核,因此我們不能保證其準確性或完整性。晉達資產管理的內部數據可能未經審核。晉達資產管理未有提供法律或稅務建議。準投資者在作出與稅收相關的投資決定之前,應諮詢其稅務顧問。

本通訊僅視為一般資訊,並非投資邀請,亦不構成提呈出售。投資涉及風險。此並非對任何特定證券作出買入、沽售或持有之建議。概無聲明任何投資將會或可能取得類似過往的利潤或虧損,或將會避免出現重大損失。本文中提及的證券或投資產品可能未有在任何司法管轄區註冊。

本通訊可能載有連至由第三方發佈或營運網站的連結。提供此連結不代表對第三方網站中所包含的任何信息有任何關聯、贊助、認可、核准、驗證或監控。晉達資產管理並未審查任何第三方網站的準確性或完整性,亦不對任何第三方網站的內容承擔任何責任,閣下需承擔使用或連至該連結的風險。

於香港,本通訊由晉達資產管理香港有限公司發行,並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會(證監會)審核。

除非另有授權,否則未經晉達資產管理事先書面同意,不得將本文件資料顯示、複製、傳送或以其他方式提供給任何第三方。©2021年晉達資產管理。版權所有。

所列示的過往表現數據並不反映未來表現。投資者應注意,投資帶有風險。投資者應參閱銷售文件以了解詳情,包括風險因素。本網站未經香港證監會審查。

一經點擊以下投資者關係的連結,閣下將離開專為香港零售投資者提供資料的本網站,進入全球網站。

務請注意,全球網站並非以香港投資者為對象。該網站未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)審閱。該網站可能包含未經證監會認可的基金及其他投資產品的資料,因此不得向香港零售投資者銷售。該網站亦可能包含據稱由晉達集團旗下的香港境外公司提供或採取的投資服務/策略的資料。

本網站所載的任何產品文件及資料僅供參考,並供位於有關資料及其使用並無違反當地法律或規例的司法管轄區或國家的人士或實體使用。

發行人:晉達資產管理香港有限公司
電郵:[email protected] 
電話:(852) 2861 6888
傳真:(852) 2861 6861