多元資產

多元資產季度評論 – 2020年1月(只供英文版)

在本季的評論中,蘇達輝(Philip Saunders)討論2021年的前景展望,而Sahil Mahtani 則探討我們預期在未來十年具關鍵長期結構性動力的五個核心投資主題,以及新冠病毒對此等主題的影響。另外,Russell Silberston回顧近期主要央行發表的政策。

2021 M01 20

25分鐘

在本季的評論中,蘇達輝(Philip Saunders)討論2021年的前景展望,而Sahil Mahtani 則探討我們預期在未來十年具關鍵長期結構性動力的五個核心投資主題,以及新冠病毒對此等主題的影響。另外,Russell Silberston回顧近期主要央行發表的政策。

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - January 2021

01
Market Review - Q4 2020
02
2021 outlook - from recovery to reflation
03
Road to 2030
04
Policy review
05
Summary of high conviction asset class views
06
Equity views
07
Fixed Income views
08
Currency views
09
Commodity views
01

Market Review - Q4 2020

Close-up view of beautiful curved glass building
The mood was heavily in favour of risk assets over the quarter, with news of successful vaccine trials prompting a sharp rotation into cyclically exposed assets.

Global risk assets moved materially higher in the final quarter of 2020 following positive developments regarding key issues such as COVID-19 vaccines, fiscal stimulus in the US and a Brexit deal. Vaccines with better-than-expected efficacy rates were developed, authorised and deployed in the UK, Europe and US. In light of continued economic challenges, central bankers confirmed they would keep financing conditions favourable, whilst in the US an agreement was made with respect to additional fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, a Brexit separation deal was finally agreed towards the end of the year. In the US, Joe Biden was elected as the next US President and the market rallied, particularly in those areas most directly linked to his fiscal stimulus and renewable infrastructure. Economic data through the quarter broadly indicated that the recovery still had momentum, although US jobs data showed some cause for concern. More concerning for investors was the increase in COVID-19 case numbers and subsequent reintroduction and/or tightening of restrictions across a number of countries.

Following the vaccine news, global equities posted double-digit-plus returns during the quarter with cyclically exposed assets leading the charge. Emerging market equities in aggregate outperformed developed market equities, led by Asia-ex Japan. The S&P 500 index ended the year at another record level, posting double-digit returns, while Europe and the UK reached post pandemic highs. There were similar outsized risk-on moves in the high yield corporate bond market, as Europe outperformed the US. In emerging markets, both sovereign bonds and currencies posted positive, and in some cases high, returns.

As a “risk-on” rotation prevailed, performance of developed market government bonds was mixed. In reaction to a slew of positive news, US Treasuries sold off and the yield curve steepened, whilst other developed market sovereign bonds, such as those in the UK and Germany, generated a small positive return. Investment grade corporate bonds in both the US and Europe generated positive returns, attributed to a supportive technical backdrop as the asset class continued to see inflows from both central banks and investors. The US dollar weakened to fresh lows since April 2018 amidst the cautiously optimistic tone seen in the markets and the commitment to highly accommodative policy from the US Federal Reserve, with this benefiting other currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen, whilst sterling also made gains following the post-Brexit trade deal agreement.

Gold had a challenging start to the quarter but recovered in December to generate a small positive return of c. 1%, ending the quarter just below $1,900/oz.  

作者

多元資產團隊

重要資訊

本通訊的資訊可能會討論一般的市場活動或行業趨勢,不擬作為預測、研究或投資建議的憑據。本通訊提供的經濟及市場觀點反映晉達資產管理截至所示日期的判斷,可能會隨時更改,恕不另行通知。概不保證所表達的觀點及意見正確無誤,晉達資產管理將來買入或沽售特定證券的意圖可能會改變。投資觀點、分析及市場意見可能並未反映晉達資產管理的總體觀點,按不同的投資目標可能會表達不同的觀點。晉達資產管理根據內部建立的數據、公開及第三方來源擬備本通訊。儘管我們認為來自公開及第三方來源的資訊均為可靠的,但我們並未對其作出獨立審核,因此我們不能保證其準確性或完整性。晉達資產管理的內部數據可能未經審核。

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