31 jul 2020
The US has been no exception to the human tragedy caused by COVID-19 and, as the biggest consumer market globally, understanding events here is crucial for investors. Economic stimulus has created an artificial environment in terms of consumer spending and the labour market.
Almost half of Americans have received a one-time payment and the average unemployed American will earn over 50% more income out of work than in work until the end of July. This makes it difficult to identify the scale and duration of the underlying demand and supply side shocks caused by COVID-19, let alone the shape of the future recovery. It appears then we are in the eye of the storm as it has a feeling of calm, but is the worst yet to come?