The fast view
- Post-COVID economic normalisation will continue into 2022.
- Equities remain attractive relative to other assets, but companies need to deliver on the earnings front.
- Information technology offers structural growth opportunities and financials offer good value.
- Within industrials, we have identified stocks benefitting from climate transition and US infrastructure spend.
- Defensive sectors may start to catch up – healthcare now looks more attractive.
Global equities
Co-Head of 4Factor, Rhynhardt Roodt, explains why post-pandemic economic normalisation and earnings growth will be key to sustaining the bull market.
QGlobal equities performed well during 2021, despite a pretty unhelpful backdrop at times – why was that?
The resilience of global markets in 2021 has been quite remarkable set against the negative newsflow of supply chain issues, rising inflation, the energy crisis in some parts of the world and strains in the Chinese property market. It’s not yet over - yield curves are steepening and monetary stimulus looks set to be replaced by asset tapering, perhaps even interest rate rises in some countries.
The argument in favour of equities rests upon their attractiveness relative to other asset classes. Despite the recent rise in longer-dated bond yields, this remains valid. However, it seems unlikely we will enjoy any further expansion of valuation multiples through a broad rise in market levels. The sustainability of the current bull run will be dependent on companies growing profits into current valuation levels.
QWhat does that mean for markets in 2022?
Most of the issues I have highlighted are perceived to be rather short-term in nature. The consensus view is that the post-COVID economic normalisation will continue into 2022. This may prove an overly optimistic view but, at the same time, given the lack of investment alternatives, investors will probably still be rewarded by continuing earnings growth, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than that experienced in 2021.
QCan you describe your current positioning?
We are focussing on sectors showing strong earnings growth, which we believe will be sustainable into 2022, and areas such as information technology, where we are finding the greatest concentration of attractive structural growth opportunities. We also like industrials, specifically stocks that might benefit from climate transition and the US infrastructure bill.
Financials are an area of global equities offering quite good value and would be beneficiaries of rising interest rates, should this materialise. Elsewhere, some commodity prices are quite high and we are finding fewer opportunities within cyclical sectors, such as materials. Defensive sectors lagged during 2021, as earnings growth has struggled to keep up with the broader market but this gap may close. Healthcare certainly looks more attractive now than at the beginning of 2021.
The key to adding value relative to any global equity benchmark is likely to be stock selection. I believe features like style allocation, sector and regional allocation and whether you are running a higher or lower beta equity portfolio are going to be less important than individual stock selection going forward. We remain focussed on building portfolios that offer a blend of quality, value and momentum in a market that is likely to become a lot more selective in distributing its rewards.
Specific risks
Equity investment: The value of equities (e.g. shares) and equity-related investments may vary according to company profits and future prospects as well as more general market factors. In the event of a company default (e.g. insolvency), the owners of their equity rank last in terms of any financial payment from that company.
General risks
All investments carry the risk of capital loss. The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise and will be affected by changes in interest rates, currency fluctuations, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to the assets in which the investment strategy invests.
Environmental, social or governance related risk events or factors, if they occur, could cause a negative impact on the value of investments.
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2022 Outlook
With Western central-bank policy normalising, economic growth rates diverging and global trade still readjusting to life after lockdown, investors have a complex environment to navigate in 2022.
Ninety One’s portfolio managers assess the outlook across their asset classes and regions.
Our team also takes a deep dive into the outlook for emerging markets, as well as into how sustainability will drive investment outcomes next year and beyond.