Road to 2030

The rise of China

Predictions are straightforward to make but hard to get right. For Chinese​ economic growth, things have typically been a little easier, since GDP growth is an input into (rather than an output of) China’s planning regime. The success of that developmental system is why China’s economy has grown fourfold over the last 20 years, from the global number six to number two today.
The Road to 2030 project is an investment-led project designed to articulate possible visions of the future, and the key drivers behind those outcomes. We explore five key themes, one of these is the rise of China.

Managing risk—that is to say, building strategies that are resilient to events like these—is not easy. So what can investors do?

In Road to 2030, we take a practitioner's perspective aided by both internal and external experts to ask the ‘what if’ questions and consider major changes to the status quo.

Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future, but one can prepare for “the future that has already happened”.

The project is laid out in five overarching themes followed by a scenario at the end. At the very least, the Road to 2030 is a horizon-scanning and risk management exercise. At its best, it provides a foundational understanding of the main drivers that will transform markets over the next decade.

It is inevitable that as China transforms into a major global economic powerhouse, its influence on the world stage will grow and this will lead to friction with the incumbent, the US.

How do we think about the rise of China?

In general, the return of multi-polarity after over a century of unipolarity represents a growing source of opportunity and risk for investors. Looking ahead, the Chinese government has said it will not set a goal of doubling GDP from 2021 onwards in the interests of focusing on higher quality, longer term growth, and that it will also rein in credit growth. That implies an economy growing more slowly than the current target of “around 6%”.

Major structural changes are affecting the Chinese economy. Based on our collaborative research, the four most important themes for investors are:

  • The shift from an investment to consumption economic growth model
  • China’s ascent up the value chain
  • China’s outward economic projection
  • The US response

We use mindmaps to organise and articulate our thoughts about subjects that are conceptually complex, and below shows our theme the rise of China.

The rise of China mindmap

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