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The 2020s are not volatile. They are structurally different.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

14 Apr 2026

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Introduction

When we published our Road to 2030 framework in 2020, we argued that markets and geopolitics would be shaped by five forces, including the Rise of China. That diagnosis remains broadly correct, but events since then require a shift in emphasis. US policy has become a prime mover in its own right, influential middle powers have gained weight and the rules-based order is fragmenting into a more competitive and politicised system.

We therefore recast the “Rise of China” theme as ‘the end of easy globalisation’, focusing on three transformations:

  1. Multipolarity
  2. Commodity bottlenecks
  3. Deepening public dissatisfaction - and their implications for allocators

Key takeaways

  • Globalisation is no longer happening on easy mode
    The model of global integration built on unipolar geopolitics, cheap energy and political consensus is no longer stable.
  • Multipolarity, bottlenecks and dissatisfaction are the key drivers
    Three drivers for the 2020s: multipolar geopolitics under a nuclear constraint; a shift from commodity abundance to bottlenecks; deepening public dissatisfaction.
  • We remain in a ‘crisis of global integration’
    This is the fourth systemic crisis since 1900.
  • Portfolios are still anchored in the past
    Diversification based on stable correlations – particularly between equities and bonds – is less reliable, inflation is more episodic; political and economic outcomes diverge more sharply across countries and sectors.
  • Portfolios will need to change
    Portfolios must be prepared for higher volatility, fatter tails and greater dispersion, rather than a single benign macro baseline.

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