Ninety One Investment Institute

Beyond the one-way trade

For years, capital has gravitated to the US.  A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.

Jul 30, 2026

Beyond the one-way trade: rethinking US exceptionalism for a new cycle

Since the global financial crisis, allocating to US assets has been the easy trade justified by technology dominance, deep capital markets, structural advantages and institutional stability. But that consensus is now being tested.

Tariffs are triggering structural shifts in the US economy and rewriting global trade rules. A deteriorating fiscal position – marked by persistent deficits, rising debt costs and policy unpredictability – is weighing on sentiment and capital flows. A more transactional style of politics is reconfiguring US foreign policy and unsettling alliances. Meanwhile, a two-decade tailwind from share buybacks is beginning to reverse as AI-driven listings and secondary issuance return equity supply to the market. All this comes at a time when the dollar looks overvalued and US equities are expensive by global standards.

This collection of research and content explores what happens when allocators start looking elsewhere – not because the US is collapsing, but because right tail risks are rising globally, while left tail risks are rising in the US. Europe is delivering a fiscal expansion led by Germany, Japan is emerging from three decades of deflation, and emerging markets, including China, are showing technology leadership and resilience.

If the age of the unquestioned American overweight is behind us, the implications are profound.

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