Chapters
Market observations
Outlook for US inflation darkens
In the US, monetary policy has been eased to support growth and protect the labour market. President Trump’s recent announcements around tariffs, have, however, created uncertainty for the outlook for inflation and increased the risk of a stagflationary scenario taking hold in the US, along with broader implications for global growth. Additionally, the new US administration’s policies around DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) and public spending look set to tighten conditions and weigh on the labour market, after several years of fiscal spending boosting economic growth.
US Budget balance
Source: Ninety One, March 2025.
In our view, these headwinds heighten the risk of a more pronounced slowdown occurring in the US than is currently expected by consensus, particularly when considering the degree to which the public sector has supported growth in recent history. We acknowledge that monetary easing, supported by further disinflation progress and greater clarity over government policy implications, could still support a more benign growth outcome, and as a result, we expect some ongoing volatility in the price of US risk assets in the near term.
ECB deposit rate vs. Fed funds rate
Source: Ninety One, March 2025.
Green shoots in Europe
In Europe, monetary policy has also been eased, bringing policy rates down to moderately tight levels. Growth indicators have been weak for some time; however, due to recent easing, interest rate-sensitive areas of the economy have shown signs of picking up.
Euro area credit impulse
Source: Ninety One, March 2025.
The latest budget proposals and constitutional changes by the outgoing German parliament, along with a broader move by European nations to increase defence spending, are expected to further provide fiscal support to economic growth and create the potential for a reflationary environment in the region later this year. We acknowledge that downside risks remain, however, particularly from President Trump’s recent tariff announcements given their potential impact on global trade and the eurozone growth outlook.
China leans in
In China, easing measures are becoming progressively more forceful, with a further shift in communication toward prioritising domestic demand expansion. Chinese authorities have increasingly reversed course on previous tightening measures and pivoted back towards supporting the private sector and capital markets over recent months. We expect policymakers to do what it takes to ensure a sustained recovery in consumption takes hold however headwinds to the external backdrop from the recent tariff announcements from the US have made their job harder.
Growth metrics remain mixed, and the recovery will likely remain uneven. Inflation remains weak, but base effects should begin to provide more support on a forward-looking basis. We continue to believe that the Chinese economy will experience a more benign outcome than the bearish consensus suggests.
Growth risk, policy risk: the case for staying nimble
As discussed above, our central investment roadmap has led us to become more cautious about risk assets due to elevated downside risks to growth in the US and globally as trade tensions increase. In fixed income, a healthy exposure to defensive government bonds remains, given potential downside risks and a lack of value in credit markets. This provides us with dry powder to take advantage of any episodes of volatility in financial markets.
In currency, we have been increasingly adding to short US dollar positions given the potential economic divergence between the US and the rest-of-world (RoW), in particular Europe where an economic recovery appears to be underway. We continue to monitor reserve currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen which can provide defensive exposure in a weak global economic outlook.
General risks. The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise. Where charges are taken from capital, this may constrain future growth. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If any currency differs from the investor’s home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Investment objectives and performance targets are subject to change and may not necessarily be achieved, losses may be made. Environmental, social or governance related risk events or factors, if they occur, could cause a negative impact on the value of investments.
Specific risks. Currency exchange: Changes in the relative values of different currencies may adversely affect the value of investments and any related income. Emerging market (inc. China): These markets carry a higher risk of financial loss than more developed markets as they may have less developed legal, political, economic or other systems. Commodity related investment: Commodity prices can be extremely volatile and significant losses may be made. Default: There is a risk that the issuers of fixed income investments (e.g. bonds) may not be able to meet interest payments nor repay the money they have borrowed. The worse the credit quality of the issuer, the greater the risk of default and therefore investment loss. Equity investment: The value of equities (e.g. shares) and equity-related investments may vary according to company profits and future prospects as well as more general market factors. In the event of a company default (e.g. insolvency), the owners of their equity rank last in terms of any financial payment from that company.
