29 Oct 2020
US political debate is more polarised than ever, but the direct implications for financial markets of the choices before voters this November appear relatively modest.
On the central issues in both domestic and foreign policy, there is likely to be significant continuity in the substance, if not the style, of decision making whatever the electoral outcomes as:
Healthcare and energy are the sectors where ideological and policy differences are widest, but even here there are reasons to expect change to be incremental and longer term rather than a shock to be priced in the run up to or immediately after the election.
We have focused on areas where likely policy approaches diverge most and have greatest potential for economic and market impact:
In each case, we consider the overall political objective, the most attainable policy changes to realise that goal and the implications of those policies.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has played a significant role in the election campaign and could still be a very high priority challenge at the start of next year.