Central Bank of Nigeria​ ​

Virtual capacity building and training programme.
Virtual capacity building and training programme.

Thank you for taking part in our CBN Virtual Capacity Building and Training Programme.

It was a great pleasure to have so many of you join our colleagues to discuss our thoughts about the future and what is likely to shape it.

Below you'll find session replays - please do explore and feel free to share with colleagues that may have not been able to attend.

Key Takeaways

  • The theme of technological competition between the US and China leading to Chinese adoption of a central bank digital currency is very relevant because it potentially releases EMs from the dollar trap.
  • We highlight the relevance of the decline in risk premia for countries that trade with China in the scenario where China transitions towards consumption and the growing importance of China as an investment destination.
  • We shared empirical evidence that of the major bond markets, returns wise, CNY bonds yield the most and provide the greatest diversification/risk-reduction benefits. Risk wise, CNY bond price volatility is among the lowest, as is currency volatility measured in USD. Therefore, by adding an allocation of good-yielding, highly-diversifying CNY bonds to one’s existing global bond portfolio, one can potentially achieve higher returns with lower overall volatility.
  • The Energy Transition session revealed the obvious, that the Energy Transition is happening, and likely to accelerate. However, an energy transition is not an end to oil demand, of course, but low-emissions and low-cost will be essential. We believe that high cost oil, gas flaring, poor governance/safety/community performance will be very challenging.

Important information

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. All of the views expressed about the markets, securities or companies reflect the personal views of the individual named. While opinions stated are honestly held, they are not guarantees and should not be relied on. Ninety One in the normal course of its activities as an international investment manager may already hold or intend to purchase or sell the stocks mentioned on behalf of its clients. The information or opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. This content may contains statements about expected or anticipated future events and financial results that are forward-looking in nature and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, such as general economic, market and business conditions, new legislation and regulatory actions, competitive and general economic factors and conditions and the occurrence of unexpected events. Actual results may differ materially from those stated herein.

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