The US election polls were wrong again, but for different reasons

The fast view

• State polls in the 2020 election were almost as inaccurate as they were four years earlier – both in terms of magnitude and direction, as Trump’s support base was once again significantly underestimated
• The reasons were well publicised four years ago, with the lack of college-educated voters in polling methodology apparently rectified this time around. So, what happened? There are a number of possible explanations
• Fewer people respond to telephone surveys nowadays, making adjustments to polling cohorts more difficult to implement; inherent biases can therefore be continually missed by voters afraid of declaring their voting intention publicly due to social stigma
• The ‘shy Trump’ vote may have played a large role in the result, with many voters afraid of social stigma to declare their voting intention publicly
• Pollsters anticipated a high voter turnout, but underestimated the greater-than-expected Republican participation; the improving economic picture heading into the election may have also been a factor
• Markets crave certainty, despite polls having large margins of error. By understanding their inherent inaccuracies, investors can turn this uncertainty into an advantage