Selling in May?

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023

Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

A disorderly transition

Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.

Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK last week. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

How can mining in Africa bolster the energy transition?

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.

The European economy is in for a rocky ride

Portfolio Manager Alex Holroyd Jones and Co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth Iain Cunningham discuss why they believe the eurozone is in for a tough time, and the opportunities arising from this.

Oil and the price equation

The oil price was hovering just over $70 per barrel in mid-June, but by early September was just above $90. This sharp and rapid rise has been attributed to a Saudi strategy of removing supply, but the buoyant demand is also crucial as higher prices have not affected the world’s appetite for black gold. Tom Nelson discusses the price equation and implications of the recent rally.

Schneider Electric: talking carbon, culture … and sustainability as a strategy

For Schneider Electric, a multinational company that specialises in digital automation and energy management, sustainability isn’t just about doing good. It’s a way of aligning the business to the structural tailwinds created by a decarbonising world.

The European economy is in for a rocky period

The European economy entered 2023 amid a wave of optimism following a challenging 2022. However, there is now increasing evidence that growth is stalling, but the market has not reacted. Alex Holroyd-Jones and Iain Cunningham explain why the team has become more bearish towards the eurozone.

Is the dollar’s status as reserve currency of the world under threat?

Reports of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been numerous over recent years. Yet its status remains intact even though 2023 hasn’t been kind to the greenback. US interest rates show signs of having peaked as inflation abates, but is the dollar weakness as simple as that?

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and explain why all the early indicators point to a recession – despite the market looking in the other direction. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at artificial intelligence, which holds much promise for modern society, but whose adoption needs to be carefully managed. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Podcast: Summertime blues in the oil market

These are uneasy times in the oil market. The OPEC+ group met again in Vienna last week alongside oil industry chief executives and the stakes are high. Tom Nelson, Head of Thematic Equities discusses with Lindsay Williams.

Mapping the sustainable growth journey in China and Korea

Juliana Hansveden and Yuxin Lin from the Sustainable Equity team recently travelled to China and Korea to meet existing and prospective portfolio companies. They discuss the insights gained from the trip and detail how they’re capturing the structural growth opportunities.

Adapting to a new reality

Philip Saunders discusses the end of the current cycle and a new market regime that is reshaping the world as we know it and unpacks what this means for investors.

India’s sustainable future

India offers an exciting decarbonisation growth opportunity, but it is also fast becoming the most populous country in the world. With that comes both risks and opportunities for investors. Portfolio Manager Graeme Baker is joined by Ninety One analyst Arita Sehgal and London School of Economics Professor in Practice Nick Robins to unpack this topic. They look at India’s impact on the world’s transition to net zero and what a just transition looks like for the country.

Thinking beyond bonds: from the multi-asset income desk

The poor performance of government securities in 2022 and the write-down of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds should lead investors to question the defensive qualities of their fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds have been seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but this does not always hold true. Jason Borbora-Sheen and Ellie Clapton are back on the desk to discuss why they think investors need to think beyond bonds for a fixed income-like return.

11 minutes

Navigating the next cycle

The next financial cycle will be profoundly different to the current cycle, writes Iain Cunningham, co-head Multi-Asset Growth, Ninety One.

Fixed income isn't necessarily the best way to deliver bond-like outcomes

The Credit Suisse crisis has called into question the defensive qualities of fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds are seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but John Stopford argues this rather simplistic view of the world ignores the quality and breadth of securities which make up a company’s capital structure.

From the multi-asset income desk: reaching the debt ceiling

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss two key topics on the multi-asset income team’s desk at present. The fallout from US regional banks and the impending US debt ceiling are at the top of the agenda.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Nature’s balance sheet: biodiversity opportunities and risks

In the first episode of Sustainability with Substance, Portfolio Manager Stephanie Niven and analyst Sam Anthony discuss the importance of biodiversity and how they think about it from an investment perspective.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023

Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

A disorderly transition

Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.

Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK last week. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

How can mining in Africa bolster the energy transition?

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.

The European economy is in for a rocky ride

Portfolio Manager Alex Holroyd Jones and Co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth Iain Cunningham discuss why they believe the eurozone is in for a tough time, and the opportunities arising from this.

Oil and the price equation

The oil price was hovering just over $70 per barrel in mid-June, but by early September was just above $90. This sharp and rapid rise has been attributed to a Saudi strategy of removing supply, but the buoyant demand is also crucial as higher prices have not affected the world’s appetite for black gold. Tom Nelson discusses the price equation and implications of the recent rally.

Schneider Electric: talking carbon, culture … and sustainability as a strategy

For Schneider Electric, a multinational company that specialises in digital automation and energy management, sustainability isn’t just about doing good. It’s a way of aligning the business to the structural tailwinds created by a decarbonising world.

The European economy is in for a rocky period

The European economy entered 2023 amid a wave of optimism following a challenging 2022. However, there is now increasing evidence that growth is stalling, but the market has not reacted. Alex Holroyd-Jones and Iain Cunningham explain why the team has become more bearish towards the eurozone.

Is the dollar’s status as reserve currency of the world under threat?

Reports of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been numerous over recent years. Yet its status remains intact even though 2023 hasn’t been kind to the greenback. US interest rates show signs of having peaked as inflation abates, but is the dollar weakness as simple as that?

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and explain why all the early indicators point to a recession – despite the market looking in the other direction. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at artificial intelligence, which holds much promise for modern society, but whose adoption needs to be carefully managed. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Podcast: Summertime blues in the oil market

These are uneasy times in the oil market. The OPEC+ group met again in Vienna last week alongside oil industry chief executives and the stakes are high. Tom Nelson, Head of Thematic Equities discusses with Lindsay Williams.

Mapping the sustainable growth journey in China and Korea

Juliana Hansveden and Yuxin Lin from the Sustainable Equity team recently travelled to China and Korea to meet existing and prospective portfolio companies. They discuss the insights gained from the trip and detail how they’re capturing the structural growth opportunities.

Adapting to a new reality

Philip Saunders discusses the end of the current cycle and a new market regime that is reshaping the world as we know it and unpacks what this means for investors.

India’s sustainable future

India offers an exciting decarbonisation growth opportunity, but it is also fast becoming the most populous country in the world. With that comes both risks and opportunities for investors. Portfolio Manager Graeme Baker is joined by Ninety One analyst Arita Sehgal and London School of Economics Professor in Practice Nick Robins to unpack this topic. They look at India’s impact on the world’s transition to net zero and what a just transition looks like for the country.

Thinking beyond bonds: from the multi-asset income desk

The poor performance of government securities in 2022 and the write-down of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds should lead investors to question the defensive qualities of their fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds have been seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but this does not always hold true. Jason Borbora-Sheen and Ellie Clapton are back on the desk to discuss why they think investors need to think beyond bonds for a fixed income-like return.

11 minutes

Navigating the next cycle

The next financial cycle will be profoundly different to the current cycle, writes Iain Cunningham, co-head Multi-Asset Growth, Ninety One.

Fixed income isn't necessarily the best way to deliver bond-like outcomes

The Credit Suisse crisis has called into question the defensive qualities of fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds are seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but John Stopford argues this rather simplistic view of the world ignores the quality and breadth of securities which make up a company’s capital structure.

From the multi-asset income desk: reaching the debt ceiling

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss two key topics on the multi-asset income team’s desk at present. The fallout from US regional banks and the impending US debt ceiling are at the top of the agenda.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Nature’s balance sheet: biodiversity opportunities and risks

In the first episode of Sustainability with Substance, Portfolio Manager Stephanie Niven and analyst Sam Anthony discuss the importance of biodiversity and how they think about it from an investment perspective.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023

Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

A disorderly transition

Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.

Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK last week. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

How can mining in Africa bolster the energy transition?

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.

Selling in May?

John Stopford

John Stopford

Portfolio Manager

Multi-Asset - latest insights

The European economy is in for a rocky ride

Oil and the price equation

Schneider Electric: talking carbon, culture … and sustainability as a strategy

The European economy is in for a rocky period

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