Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

How China is forging its own path to recovery

Against a challenging backdrop, but armed with an ample monetary war chest, China’s macroeconomic policy is likely to continue diverging from other major markets, according to Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma. For investors, this creates opportunities.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

Fixed income isn't necessarily the best way to deliver bond-like outcomes

The Credit Suisse crisis has called into question the defensive qualities of fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds are seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but John Stopford argues this rather simplistic view of the world ignores the quality and breadth of securities which make up a company’s capital structure.

From the multi-asset income desk: reaching the debt ceiling

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss two key topics on the multi-asset income team’s desk at present. The fallout from US regional banks and the impending US debt ceiling are at the top of the agenda.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Nature’s balance sheet: biodiversity opportunities and risks

In the first episode of Sustainability with Substance, Portfolio Manager Stephanie Niven and analyst Sam Anthony discuss the importance of biodiversity and how they think about it from an investment perspective.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023

Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Why gold has regained some of its lustre

Resources prices and the value of producers’ shares are being pushed and pulled by a variety of complex factors, both self-made and external. George Cheveley shares insights gained from conferences abroad, where he has been both a speaker and delegate, and pays particular attention to gold, a metal that has recently regained some of its lustre.

SVB's failure

The investment world was recently rocked by a bank failure. It was a niche bank but nonetheless important, as its demise highlights the impact of repeated and rapid rate rises. Iain Cunningham explains why this may be the beginning of a problem, not the end.

What the inverted yield curve foretells

For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.

A disorderly transition

Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.

Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK last week. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

How can mining in Africa bolster the energy transition?

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.

US - recession or not?

The recession-predictor pundits are stoic in their belief that the US is already in, or will be soon in the midst of an economic downturn. However, recent PMI and jobs data show that the world’s largest economy is defiantly robust. Jason Borbora-Sheen puts forward the case for a recession, but not yet.

Forget February, focus on March

Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view – one that is more cautious than the consensus. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the expected increase in climate investment and simultaneous reduction in fossil fuel demand, likely multi-year trends that could benefit more traditional industries and enablers of the energy transition. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

How China is forging its own path to recovery

Against a challenging backdrop, but armed with an ample monetary war chest, China’s macroeconomic policy is likely to continue diverging from other major markets, according to Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma. For investors, this creates opportunities.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

Fixed income isn't necessarily the best way to deliver bond-like outcomes

The Credit Suisse crisis has called into question the defensive qualities of fixed income holdings. Traditionally, bonds are seen as ‘safe’ and equities as ‘risky’, but John Stopford argues this rather simplistic view of the world ignores the quality and breadth of securities which make up a company’s capital structure.

From the multi-asset income desk: reaching the debt ceiling

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen discuss two key topics on the multi-asset income team’s desk at present. The fallout from US regional banks and the impending US debt ceiling are at the top of the agenda.

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Nature’s balance sheet: biodiversity opportunities and risks

In the first episode of Sustainability with Substance, Portfolio Manager Stephanie Niven and analyst Sam Anthony discuss the importance of biodiversity and how they think about it from an investment perspective.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023

Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Why gold has regained some of its lustre

Resources prices and the value of producers’ shares are being pushed and pulled by a variety of complex factors, both self-made and external. George Cheveley shares insights gained from conferences abroad, where he has been both a speaker and delegate, and pays particular attention to gold, a metal that has recently regained some of its lustre.

SVB's failure

The investment world was recently rocked by a bank failure. It was a niche bank but nonetheless important, as its demise highlights the impact of repeated and rapid rate rises. Iain Cunningham explains why this may be the beginning of a problem, not the end.

What the inverted yield curve foretells

For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.

A disorderly transition

Evidence suggests the transition to a low-carbon economy will be disorderly. By allocating to ‘transition assets’, investors can mitigate some of the disorder, while potentially generating positive outcomes for their portfolios. This paper makes the case for transition investing, and explains how to identify a true ‘transition asset’.

Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK last week. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

How can mining in Africa bolster the energy transition?

The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains.

US - recession or not?

The recession-predictor pundits are stoic in their belief that the US is already in, or will be soon in the midst of an economic downturn. However, recent PMI and jobs data show that the world’s largest economy is defiantly robust. Jason Borbora-Sheen puts forward the case for a recession, but not yet.

Forget February, focus on March

Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view – one that is more cautious than the consensus. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the expected increase in climate investment and simultaneous reduction in fossil fuel demand, likely multi-year trends that could benefit more traditional industries and enablers of the energy transition. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

How China is forging its own path to recovery

Against a challenging backdrop, but armed with an ample monetary war chest, China’s macroeconomic policy is likely to continue diverging from other major markets, according to Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma. For investors, this creates opportunities.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Philip Saunders

Philip Saunders

Director Investment Institute

Multi-Asset – latest insights

Fixed income isn't necessarily the best way to deliver bond-like outcomes

From the multi-asset income desk: reaching the debt ceiling

Capital Market Assumptions - April 2023

Nature’s balance sheet: biodiversity opportunities and risks

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