Global
Macro insights
Macro events can shape the future. Getting the direction of travel correct is a key driver of long-term investment performance, and that’s why assessing the implications of major events is crucial.
Market review
April in review
Financial markets surged in April, defying geopolitical tensions. Global equities delivered their strongest gain since late 2020, led by technology and AI-linked stocks, even as the US-Iran conflict kept oil prices elevated and complicated the inflation outlook. Government bonds weakened as higher energy prices pushed out rate cut expectations, while credit markets performed well in the risk-on environment. Commodities were mixed: industrial metals advanced, oil was volatile, and gold was flat. Investor sentiment improved as markets looked past near-term risks and focused on resilient earnings and structural growth themes.
8 minutes
11 May 2026
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2026
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
08 May 2026
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2026
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
5 minutes
30 Apr 2026
Market review
Q1 in review
Global markets took a decisive turn in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, as early optimism gave way to a geopolitical shock. A strong start to the year was derailed by escalating conflict in the Middle East, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing a rapid re-pricing of interest rate expectations. The result was a broad-based risk-off move across global markets, with macroeconomic factors reasserting themselves as the primary drivers of market performance.
13 minutes
14 Apr 2026
Investment Institute
The end of easy globalisation
Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.
14 Apr 2026
Global Natural Resources
The physical reality of an oil shock
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe global oil supply shock, leaving the market with a deficit that available alternatives cannot meaningfully offset. While prices have yet to fully reflect the strain, tightening inventories and disrupted flows point to higher near-term volatility and a lasting shift in the oil price outlook.
4 minutes
24 Mar 2026
Global Natural Resources
Oil shock: when geopolitics shuts the taps
Oil markets have reacted sharply to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Gooden, Head of Global Natural Resources at Ninety One, explains why the disruption is reverberating through oil and gas markets, how supply constraints are pushing prices higher, and what it could mean for energy markets in the weeks and months ahead.
4 minutes
10 Mar 2026
Market review
February in review
Financial markets were broadly positive in February. US Treasury yields declined and global equities posted gains on resilient economic data. However, technology stocks had a weaker month, selling off amid concerns about potential disruption from AI. Commodities were again strong: precious metals continued to rally, while oil prices rose, partly on fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. US-Israeli strikes on Iran took place on the final day of the month after most financial markets had closed. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court struck down some of the tariffs imposed last year, although new levies were soon introduced via an alternative legal route.
13 minutes
06 Mar 2026
Investment Institute
War in the Gulf
War in the Middle East has brought one of the market’s long-standing geopolitical fault lines into sharp focus, particularly the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Against an already fragile backdrop, the key question is whether this episode remains contained or escalates into a shock with global economic consequences.
5 minutes
02 Mar 2026
Market review
January in review
A noisy month in geopolitics drove up market volatility, but global equities made gains – helped by signs of strength in the global economy. US dollar weakness and inflows from investors seeking diversification boosted emerging market (EM) assets. In fixed income, softer inflation data supported European bonds, but political uncertainty jostled Japan's yield curve. Commodities made a strong start to the year.
13 minutes
05 Feb 2026
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2026
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
5 minutes
30 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Podcast | Energy, geopolitics, and markets: reflections from Miami
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Paul Gooden, Portfolio Manager for Global Natural Resources, discuss Venezuela and broader energy themes following the Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference in Miami.
14 Jan 2026
Market review
Q4 in review
Risk assets capped a strong year with gains in Q4. Equities rose, while credit and emerging markets fixed income also delivered healthy returns. Oil lagged, but other commodities finished on a high, with precious metals extending their advance. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice during the quarter, but officials made it clear that the bar for further easing is rising.
14 minutes
13 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Podcast | Venezuela: on the ground in Caracas with International Crisis Group
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, and Nicolas Jaquier, EM Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, are joined by Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, who is based in Caracas for an on-the-ground perspective on the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela.
12 Jan 2026
2026 EM outlook
Nearer the start of a multi-year cycle
Emerging markets outperformance tends to happen in multi-year cycles. The question for 2026 is whether we are closer to the end or the beginning of this EM cycle. There is strong evidence that it is the latter.
18 minutes
12 Jan 2026
2026 Global outlook
Goldilocks prevails: investing in 2026
After a disorienting 12 months, investors need to recalibrate their perceptions of risk – a ‘Goldilocks’ macro environment is likely to prevail in 2026. But while conditions appear ‘just right’, thoughtful positioning is required within each asset class.
20 minutes
12 Jan 2026
Global Managed Income
Defence remains key
2026 opens with uneven growth, elevated debt and valuations that leave little margin for error. Resilience and precision in positioning will matter more than ever.
6 minutes
12 Jan 2026
Investment Institute
Venezuela: scenarios and market implications
Maduro’s exit raises the chance of change, but power is likely to remain with the security state as the US opts for pressure and negotiation over regime overhaul. Markets appear ahead of reality, with any improvement in oil and debt outcomes likely to be slow and uneven.
5 minutes
07 Jan 2026
Market review
November in review
November brought a shift in tone, with global equities pausing their seven-month ascent as valuation and policy risks reasserted themselves. Hawkish central-bank signals and fatigue in the AI trade weighed on markets mid-month, before softer data and a calmer Fed helped steady sentiment. Fixed income markets were mixed as shifting rate expectations pulled markets in different directions, while credit delivered gains despite strain in the riskiest segments. Gold remained supported and copper firmed on supply concerns.
8 minutes
05 Dec 2025
AI
The overlooked frontier
Amid the global AI buildout, emerging markets credit is quietly powering the infrastructure behind the revolution - offering investors yield with purpose and access to the engines of AI growth.
4 minutes
01 Dec 2025
Market review
October in review
October was a broadly positive month for markets, with equities and government bonds both performing well. Early geopolitical tensions faded as a one-year trade accord was announced between the US and China. Leadership remained narrow, with big tech dominating, lifting US equities – and many AI-exposed emerging markets. In the credit space, most asset classes delivered positive total returns, although cracks appeared in the riskiest parts of the loan market. Gold and copper reached new highs.
8 minutes
07 Nov 2025
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
06 Nov 2025
Investment Institute
The great rebalancing
A new cycle reshaping global equity leadership.
20 minutes
04 Nov 2025
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – September 2025
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
5 minutes
24 Oct 2025
Market review
Q3 in review
Risk appetite held firm in the third quarter as expectations of US rate cuts outweighed tariff concerns. Global equities advanced, led by resilient US markets and supported by gains in Europe, the UK and emerging markets. Fixed income told a more nuanced story: Treasuries rallied on the Fed’s first cut of the cycle, but long-dated bonds in France and other fiscally stretched markets came under pressure. Gold, meanwhile, defied the broader ‘risk-on’ theme, surging to record highs as investors sought protection against persistent inflation.
10 minutes
03 Oct 2025
AI
Power up for AI
AI is dramatically changing trends in electricity demand, creating exciting opportunities for equity investors.
5 minutes
12 Sep 2025
AI
Meet the AI makers
Emerging markets are building the backbone of the AI revolution, offering long-term investors a compelling way in.
4 minutes
12 Sep 2025
AI
Cool, calm and AI-exposed
Often beneath the radar, high-quality businesses are quietly positioned to benefit from AI, with resilience and staying power.
5 minutes
12 Sep 2025
Investment Institute
The shrinking upside in the dollar story
Our research offers three reasons why the dollar’s upside is limited, while the balance of risks increasingly point lower.
19 minutes
05 Sep 2025
Market review
August in review
The increased likelihood of US interest-rate cuts drove positive performance in key financial markets as trade-tariff concerns took a back seat. Global equities advanced, but threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence – coupled with concerns over fiscal outlooks for France, Japan, and the UK – weighed on long-term debt markets, with investors reassessing the riskiness of ‘safe haven’ assets. Gold was one safe-haven asset that did not disappoint, with the price of the precious metal nearing an all-time high on mounting inflation concerns.
10 minutes
05 Sep 2025
Market review
July in review
Global markets navigated a wave of macro headlines in July, with trade policy and tariffs once again the main talking points. By month end, the US had secured trade deals with several major partners, extended deadlines for others (notably China), and enforced higher levies on holdouts across various key markets. Nevertheless, global sentiment was broadly positive, with further support coming in the form of strong corporate earnings, particularly tech stocks, and firmer economic data out of the US.
11 minutes
08 Aug 2025
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – June 2025
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
5 minutes
23 Jul 2025
Investment Institute
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence.
20 minutes
04 Jul 2025
Investment Institute
Beyond the one-way trade
For years, capital has gravitated to the US. A one-way trade powered by tech dominance and economic heft. But as the world tilts on its axis, the next cycle is unlikely to resemble the last, and the investment map is beginning to redraw itself.
04 Jul 2025
Macro insights
Q2 in review
The second quarter was volatile, with markets rattled by trade-war worries and the outbreak of direct hostilities between Iran and Israel. But you would hardly know it from financial-market performance, with the prices of many risk assets moving higher over the three months and some of the US ‘Big Tech’ stocks rebounding from their prior lows. Emerging markets equities and fixed income were also strong.
11 minutes
04 Jul 2025
Market review
May in review
May saw a revival in risk appetite, supported by easing trade tensions and resilient US economic data. Global equities rallied, credit markets posted broad gains, and some commodities—including copper and oil—benefitted. Still, rising developed market yields and the US Treasury downgrade stirred fiscal concerns and weighed on sovereign bonds.
8 minutes
06 Jun 2025
Market review
April in review
April was characterised by significant volatility across equity, fixed income and commodity markets, driven by the announcement of sweeping US tariffs. The ensuing economic uncertainty led to mixed asset-class performance.
10 minutes
09 May 2025
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - April 2025
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
29 Apr 2025
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – March 2025
Ninety One's multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our asset class views.
6 minutes
11 Apr 2025
Macro insights
Q1 in review
Coming into 2025, markets were positioned for a continuation of US exceptionalism under a new Republican administration. Instead, what we have been served is unpredictable trade policy which has sparked volatility, dampened US growth expectations, and shifted leadership abroad. European fiscal stimulus has surprised to the upside, and emerging markets outperformed their developed market peers, while commodities led gains amid rising inflation and geopolitical tension.
11 minutes
07 Apr 2025
Hidden GEMS
Hidden GEMs: Blurred lines - the EM’ification of DM
Peter Kent, Co-Head of Fixed Income, argues that a shift in volatility in developed markets means asset allocators face a new reality.
4 minutes
02 Apr 2025
Hidden GEMS
Hidden GEMs: AI’s new power shift- how DeepSeek is challenging US tech supremacy
Anton du Plooy, Global Tech Sector Analyst, discusses how DeepSeek's artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough is challenging U.S. dominance, bypassing restrictions and reshaping global AI investment and geopolitics.
3 minutes
19 Mar 2025
Market review
February in review
The second month of the year was as eventful as the first, with the direction of US tariff and broader political policy dominating the agenda. There is also clear evidence that a change in leadership may be occurring, both geographically and in terms of sectors.
8 minutes
10 Mar 2025
Market review
January in review
It was a dramatic start to the year, with Donald Trump’s inauguration swiftly followed by a record number of executive orders reinforcing his America First agenda. Despite rising trade tensions – underscored by Trump’s tariff proposals, – interest rate uncertainty, and the DeepSeek AI shock, financial markets ended a bumpy January broadly higher, with gains across gold, government bonds, and global stocks.
8 minutes
06 Feb 2025
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - December 2024
The MA Quarterly for the three months to December. The multi-asset growth team provides insights into the macroeconomic environment that informs our investment outlook for the coming quarter. This includes concise summaries of our high-conviction asset class views.
6 minutes
31 Jan 2025
Market review
Q4 in review
Robust US economic data and higher inflation made for a volatile end to the year in bond markets, pushing up yields and strengthening the US dollar. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve further dented optimism around the path of interest rate cuts, resulting in a more subdued end to an otherwise strong year for equity markets.
14 minutes
09 Jan 2025
Global outlook
A building global recovery
With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie.
20 minutes
07 Jan 2025
Market review
November in review
The US election was the main event of the month, with Donald Trump’s clean sweep driving a sharp risk-on rally, particularly in the US. It was a mixed month for South African assets, while in Europe, French assets underperformed given the country’s budget situation. Sovereign bond yields generally fell over November, predominantly in Europe, although Japan bucked this trend. US yields were volatile.
8 minutes
06 Dec 2024
Elections
The year of the ballot
Elections often move markets. This year, eight of the world’s 10 most-populous nations go to the polls in the same year for the first time ever. FX markets are often the best way to express views or hedge positions in and around elections, and FX volatility presents a source of potential alpha. We have produced this piece to help investors navigate this year. The year of the ballot.
25 minutes
22 Nov 2024
Market review
October in review
October was a volatile month for global markets for various reasons, but the key common factor throughout was the upcoming US elections, and the general appetite for risk eroded as the event drew closer. By month-end, most markets were down, in US dollars.
8 minutes
11 Nov 2024
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024
The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.
12 minutes
31 Oct 2024
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
28 Oct 2024
Market review
Q3 in review
Despite significant volatility at the start of August, the third quarter of 2024 proved to be a strong one for global markets, across both equities and fixed income. This was driven by several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, cutting interest rates, while US economic data proved to be more resilient than feared. An exception to the trend was oil markets, which saw prices fall over the period.
11 minutes
04 Oct 2024
Market review
August in review
The month began with a sharp selloff in equities due to poor US employment data and a surprise rate hike in Japan, causing turmoil in currency carry trades. However, markets recovered as central bankers in the US and Japan signalled dovish policies, boosting global bonds and equities on expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
8 minutes
05 Sep 2024
The Big Picture Podcast
Has inflation bottomed?
Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.
11 minutes
23 Aug 2024
Market review
July in review
After a positive start to July, market sentiment soured as the month progressed on renewed China fears and some underwhelming ‘Big Tech’ earnings. Developed market equities outperformed emerging market stocks, with the latter dragged down by China. In the US, small-caps outperformed their large-cap counterparts. From a regional perspective, the UK was one of the few bright spots.
8 minutes
06 Aug 2024
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024
The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.
12 minutes
25 Jul 2024
Macroscope
Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0
Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.
3 minutes
16 Jul 2024
Market review
Q2 in review
It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.
15 minutes
08 Jul 2024
Macroscope
US fiscal consolidation? Not in 2025
Multi-Asset team Analyst, Dan Morgan, discusses how US fiscal policy will continue to play an increasingly influential role. As investors navigate a new policymaking world, he considers what they should look out for.
3 minutes
17 Jun 2024
Market review
May in review
May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.
8 minutes
06 Jun 2024
Market review
April in review
April was a more challenging month for capital markets, with numerous asset classes experiencing losses. Inflation proved stickier than expected, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year. This prompted further upward moves in US yields, weighing on fixed income assets. Emerging market equities and commodities bucked the trend, delivering healthy gains.
8 minutes
03 May 2024
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - March 2024
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
29 Apr 2024
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - April 2024
Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.
18 minutes
26 Apr 2024
Market review
Q1 in review
The first quarter of 2024 was marked by continued strength for risk assets, with a number of major equity indices extending record highs. Economic data kept surprising on the upside, which lifted hopes that a recession could be avoided. Sharp upward moves in US yields weighed on global fixed income markets.
8 minutes
08 Apr 2024
Macroscope
The geopolitical future that has already happened
The consequences of “the future that has already happened” are likely to be profound for investors, according to Sahil Mahtani, Head of Macro Research.
2 minutes
12 Mar 2024
Market review
February in review
February was another strong month for risk assets, with several major equity indices at record highs. Improved sentiment towards China helped lift emerging market equities, while the sharp upward moves in US yields weighed on global fixed income markets.
8 minutes
06 Mar 2024
Macroscope
Fire or Water - Opportunities in China’s structural challenges
The dragon might not be breathing fire, but turn your back at your peril, according to Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi Asset Growth.
4 minutes
07 Feb 2024
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - January 2024
The MA Quarterly for the three months to December. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the strategy, various asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.
18 minutes
24 Jan 2024
Macroscope
Long the yen against the euro
Tight policy in Europe and very loose policy in Japan, leads us to predict a great asymmetry over the next 12 months between the two. To navigate the prospect of policy convergence, Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, explains why we are long the yen versus the euro.
4 minutes
18 Jan 2024
Macroscope
Do central banks risk ‘keeping at it’ for too long?
Throughout history, inflationary episodes have been rare. It has therefore been difficult for investors and policymakers to draw parallels of today’s experience to history.
4 minutes
12 Dec 2023
Multi-Asset
China: Structural and cyclical challenges present opportunities
We discuss some of the structural and cyclical aspects of the Chinese economy and why we currently see attractive investment opportunities in the region.
8 minutes
11 Dec 2023
Global outlook
Positioning for the next cycle
A radical reset in borrowing costs has changed the rules of the game for investors. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani assess the outlook for 2024 and beyond, and discuss where to invest for a new market cycle.
5 minutes
27 Nov 2023
Multi-Asset growth
Tight monetary policy to hamper growth
Around the world central banks have raised interest rates in a bid to curb inflation. The consequence, as we have previously seen in China, are currently seeing in Europe and are likely to see in the US, is slowing growth. Iain Cunningham spells out what this means for markets, and investors.
7 minutes
27 Nov 2023
Multi-Asset income
It’s time to rethink fixed income
With interest rates set to remain higher for longer, investors have some thinking to do. Are the same rules that have applied for the past few decades still in play, or is a different approach needed?
5 minutes
27 Nov 2023
Multi-Asset
Capital Market Assumptions - October 2023
Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.
20 minutes
01 Nov 2023
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly - October 2023
Ninety One’s multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, the materials fuelling the transition to green energy, and the performance of various asset classes.
18 minutes
30 Oct 2023
Macroscope
What’s going on in the US bond market?
The aggressive sell off in US bonds has prompted many to speculate that interest rates have adjusted upwards on a structural basis. Ninety One Investment Strategist Russell Silbertson takes a different view.
3 minutes
23 Oct 2023
Macroscope
The European economy is in for a rocky ride
Portfolio Manager Alex Holroyd Jones and Co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth Iain Cunningham discuss why they believe the eurozone is in for a tough time, and the opportunities arising from this.
3 minutes
18 Sep 2023
Macroscope
It’s good to talk
Investment strategist Russell Silberston, discusses the surprising merits of simple and concise central bank communication.
5 minutes
14 Aug 2023
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2023
In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and explain why all the early indicators point to a recession – despite the market looking in the other direction. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at artificial intelligence, which holds much promise for modern society, but whose adoption needs to be carefully managed. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.
20 minutes
24 Jul 2023
Macroscope
Summertime blues in the oil market
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again, says Tom Nelson, Head of Thematic Equities and Co- Portfolio Manager of Global Natural Resources.
2 minutes
05 Jul 2023
Macroscope
Opportunity knocks when investors lose faith
Strategist Sahil Mahtani argues that a robust Chinese cyclical recovery is still underway.
3 minutes
19 Jun 2023
Global Macro Allocation
Navigating the next cycle
The next financial cycle will be profoundly different to the current cycle, writes Iain Cunningham, co-head Multi-Asset Growth, Ninety One.
4 minutes
14 Jun 2023
Macroscope
The debt ceiling - an inevitable increase, an unavoidable reckoning
Strategist Sahil Mahtani and Analyst Daniel Morgan say that it is easy to imagine worse scenarios.
5 minutes
22 May 2023
Macroscope
As safe as houses?
Analyst Rebecca Phillips and Strategist Russell Silberston query whether houses are a safe investment and ask what are the economic implications when things go wrong.
3 minutes
25 Apr 2023
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2023
Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view, and suggest that two primary forces remain underappreciated by financial markets; Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the semi-conductor industry, vital to modern civilisation, and yet facing a tumultuous period of growth; Russell Silbertson unpacks the latest thinking from leading central banks. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our higher conviction asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.
20 minutes
19 Apr 2023
Macroscope
SVB Financial - a consequence of exiting false equilibrium
Portfolio Manager Iain Cunningham discusses how the failure of SVB Financial is a consequence of something much bigger - and how we might be facing the start, rather than the end, of a broader cycle of delinquency, default and bankruptcy.
3 minutes
13 Mar 2023
Macroscope
Zen and the art of policy pauses
Strategist Russell Silberston discusses central bankers’ desire to achieve monetary enlightenment by raising interest rates just enough to bring inflation back to target, without pushing the economy into a deep recession.
3 minutes
20 Feb 2023
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023
In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view – one that is more cautious than the consensus. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the expected increase in climate investment and simultaneous reduction in fossil fuel demand, likely multi-year trends that could benefit more traditional industries and enablers of the energy transition. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.
20 minutes
31 Jan 2023
Macroscope
Watch the Yen in 2023
Portfolio Managers Iain Cunningham and Alex Holroyd-Jones discuss the likelihood of a developed market recession and an end to ultra-loose Japanese monetary policy in 2023
3 minutes
25 Jan 2023
Macroscope
As investors debate whether China is ‘uninvestable’, policy pivots to economic growth
Did investors panic after China’s Party Congress in October? It certainly looks so. Both the Hong Kong stock exchange and Chinese high yield credit are up by a third in the seven weeks since the meeting, and the market narrative has shifted at extraordinary speed in at least three ways, according to Strategist Sahil Mahtani.
2 minutes
13 Dec 2022
Macroscope
Is the Old Lady going too slowly?
Russell Silberston discusses how the Bank of England is an international outlier in relying on models rather than data to anticipate inflation
4 minutes
24 Nov 2022
Macro insights
Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022
In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.
20 minutes
03 Nov 2022
Macroscope
Energy collisions and supply shocks. What will COP27 bring?
The twelve months since COP26 have been tumultuous for many reasons, few of them positive. Despite the negativity, Tom Nelson, Co Portfolio Manager, Global Natural Resources, says that it is worth reflecting on how recent events have affected the energy transition, and how COP27 might address some of the substantial challenges that have arisen in 2022.
1 minute
24 Oct 2022
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Insights
Market and portfolio insights, webinars & events curated from across our investment teams to help you steer through changing investment landscapes.
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