Is recession the price to pay for taming inflation?

Selling in May?

Risk assets can be sensitive to the downside, but yet remain at elevated levels. As we approach May with what some see as the perfect storm, should investors sell in May, take protection, or target sectors that might be resilient? John Stopford discusses.

Is central bank tightening priced in?

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2022

In this edition, Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called 'hard assets' during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, while Philip Saunders discusses the dramatic policy shift towards defence and energy spending in Europe. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Raising interest rates! What is the prediction for the future?

With the focus in recent weeks on Russia and Ukraine, interest rates were seemingly a sideshow. But they came into sharp focus when The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates within hours of each other, as predicted. But what is the prediction for the future? Investment Strategist Russell Silberston explains.

A game-changing response to the challenge of climate change

The oddly named Inflation Reduction Act introduces a raft of far-reaching measures that will support the energy industry in the US for at least a decade to come. This has positive implications for investors.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Has inflation peaked?

Inflation has soared to multi-decade highs in several key economies, ringing central bankers’ alarm bells and unsettling the global investment community. But has inflation peaked? And if so how will the custodians of the price of money respond?

10 minutes

Are we on the verge of an inflation regime change?

Inflation is higher than most of us can remember. But will it persist, or revert back to the lower levels we have become accustomed to for the past 40 years? Portfolio Managers Alex Holroyd-Jones and Jason Borbora-Sheen, explain why the answer entirely depends on the upcoming actions of central banks.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Why are the fundamentals behind short term movements so crucial?

Short-term market movements are rightly brushed aside by long-term investors, but the fundamentals behind those movements are crucial if they persist and short term becomes longer term. Philip Saunders, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth discusses the set of circumstances causing such concern in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

18 minutes

South Korean rates – an opportunity presented by the global rates sell off

Government bonds have not had a pretty year so far. But stress can bring opportunity. The Multi-Asset team believes that South Korean rates could be one such opportunity over a medium-term horizon.

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Sustainable investing needs to evolve. Fast

The leading businesses of tomorrow will be those that create value for all of their stakeholders. To identify them, sustainable investment approaches need to be re-engineered. Three of Ninety One’s portfolio managers explain how.

Central banks have awoken

Suddenly central banks worldwide have awoken. Rates are rising and investors are contemplating the consequences. Russell Silberston describes the present and potential future environment in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Time to get our houses in order for the energy transition

With the global construction industry accounting for almost 40% of total energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, tackling climate change clearly needs to start at home. That presents big opportunities for companies supplying products and services that make the built environment more energy efficient.

Selling in May?

Risk assets can be sensitive to the downside, but yet remain at elevated levels. As we approach May with what some see as the perfect storm, should investors sell in May, take protection, or target sectors that might be resilient? John Stopford discusses.

Is central bank tightening priced in?

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2022

In this edition, Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called 'hard assets' during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, while Philip Saunders discusses the dramatic policy shift towards defence and energy spending in Europe. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Raising interest rates! What is the prediction for the future?

With the focus in recent weeks on Russia and Ukraine, interest rates were seemingly a sideshow. But they came into sharp focus when The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates within hours of each other, as predicted. But what is the prediction for the future? Investment Strategist Russell Silberston explains.

A game-changing response to the challenge of climate change

The oddly named Inflation Reduction Act introduces a raft of far-reaching measures that will support the energy industry in the US for at least a decade to come. This has positive implications for investors.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Has inflation peaked?

Inflation has soared to multi-decade highs in several key economies, ringing central bankers’ alarm bells and unsettling the global investment community. But has inflation peaked? And if so how will the custodians of the price of money respond?

10 minutes

Are we on the verge of an inflation regime change?

Inflation is higher than most of us can remember. But will it persist, or revert back to the lower levels we have become accustomed to for the past 40 years? Portfolio Managers Alex Holroyd-Jones and Jason Borbora-Sheen, explain why the answer entirely depends on the upcoming actions of central banks.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Why are the fundamentals behind short term movements so crucial?

Short-term market movements are rightly brushed aside by long-term investors, but the fundamentals behind those movements are crucial if they persist and short term becomes longer term. Philip Saunders, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth discusses the set of circumstances causing such concern in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

18 minutes

South Korean rates – an opportunity presented by the global rates sell off

Government bonds have not had a pretty year so far. But stress can bring opportunity. The Multi-Asset team believes that South Korean rates could be one such opportunity over a medium-term horizon.

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Sustainable investing needs to evolve. Fast

The leading businesses of tomorrow will be those that create value for all of their stakeholders. To identify them, sustainable investment approaches need to be re-engineered. Three of Ninety One’s portfolio managers explain how.

Central banks have awoken

Suddenly central banks worldwide have awoken. Rates are rising and investors are contemplating the consequences. Russell Silberston describes the present and potential future environment in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Time to get our houses in order for the energy transition

With the global construction industry accounting for almost 40% of total energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, tackling climate change clearly needs to start at home. That presents big opportunities for companies supplying products and services that make the built environment more energy efficient.

Selling in May?

Risk assets can be sensitive to the downside, but yet remain at elevated levels. As we approach May with what some see as the perfect storm, should investors sell in May, take protection, or target sectors that might be resilient? John Stopford discusses.

Is central bank tightening priced in?

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2022

In this edition, Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called 'hard assets' during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, while Philip Saunders discusses the dramatic policy shift towards defence and energy spending in Europe. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Raising interest rates! What is the prediction for the future?

With the focus in recent weeks on Russia and Ukraine, interest rates were seemingly a sideshow. But they came into sharp focus when The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates within hours of each other, as predicted. But what is the prediction for the future? Investment Strategist Russell Silberston explains.

Is recession the price to pay for taming inflation?

Russell Silberston​

Russell Silberston​

Investment Strategist – Macro-economic and policy research​

Multi-Asset – latest insights

A game-changing response to the challenge of climate change

Neutral matters

Inflation: What it means for investors

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

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Insights

Russell Silberston

Russell Silberston

Investment Strategist – Macro-economic and policy research