Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Has inflation peaked?

Inflation has soared to multi-decade highs in several key economies, ringing central bankers’ alarm bells and unsettling the global investment community. But has inflation peaked? And if so how will the custodians of the price of money respond?

10 minutes

Forget February, focus on March

Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view – one that is more cautious than the consensus. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the expected increase in climate investment and simultaneous reduction in fossil fuel demand, likely multi-year trends that could benefit more traditional industries and enablers of the energy transition. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

How China is forging its own path to recovery

Against a challenging backdrop, but armed with an ample monetary war chest, China’s macroeconomic policy is likely to continue diverging from other major markets, according to Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma. For investors, this creates opportunities.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

The diverging dollar bloc

Dollar block economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada are facing structural headwinds to growth and inflation, with potentially negative implications for their currencies. This is likely to lead to policy divergence between the US and these dollar bloc economies over the next 6-12 months. In this article, Iain Cunningham and Rebecca Phillips discuss why they moved short these currencies versus the US dollar as a result.

As inflation continues to remain stubbornly hot, central banks are scrambling to cool it down

The Fed and the Bank of England have both raised rates while warning of more to come. Russell Silberston analyses the economic and market implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Predictions of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been debunked as the greenback soars to double-decade highs. The implications are far reaching for the global economy, but also for portfolio construction. Philip Saunders analyses the current environment.

Flexible asset allocation: a curse or blessing?

Not all multi-asset strategies are equal. In this article Iain Cunningham, Co-head of the Multi-Asset Growth capability sets out why flexibility, when used correctly, can be a powerful tool in multi-asset portfolio management.

A game-changing response to the challenge of climate change

The oddly named Inflation Reduction Act introduces a raft of far-reaching measures that will support the energy industry in the US for at least a decade to come. This has positive implications for investors.

New walls and broken bridges

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness have important consequences for global markets. These consequences may not be as predictable as some would imagine.

Investing in an inflationary world

Inflation is higher than many investors have experienced in their lifetimes. Should they run for the hills or bunker down? Ninety One brought together its portfolio managers and other experts to discuss the options.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Has inflation peaked?

Inflation has soared to multi-decade highs in several key economies, ringing central bankers’ alarm bells and unsettling the global investment community. But has inflation peaked? And if so how will the custodians of the price of money respond?

10 minutes

Forget February, focus on March

Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks outline their cyclical growth view – one that is more cautious than the consensus. Sahil Mahtani takes a closer look at the expected increase in climate investment and simultaneous reduction in fossil fuel demand, likely multi-year trends that could benefit more traditional industries and enablers of the energy transition. Finally, we close with a succinct summary of our asset class views, beginning with equities, moving on to fixed income, currency and closing out with commodities.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

How China is forging its own path to recovery

Against a challenging backdrop, but armed with an ample monetary war chest, China’s macroeconomic policy is likely to continue diverging from other major markets, according to Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma. For investors, this creates opportunities.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

The diverging dollar bloc

Dollar block economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada are facing structural headwinds to growth and inflation, with potentially negative implications for their currencies. This is likely to lead to policy divergence between the US and these dollar bloc economies over the next 6-12 months. In this article, Iain Cunningham and Rebecca Phillips discuss why they moved short these currencies versus the US dollar as a result.

As inflation continues to remain stubbornly hot, central banks are scrambling to cool it down

The Fed and the Bank of England have both raised rates while warning of more to come. Russell Silberston analyses the economic and market implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Predictions of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been debunked as the greenback soars to double-decade highs. The implications are far reaching for the global economy, but also for portfolio construction. Philip Saunders analyses the current environment.

Flexible asset allocation: a curse or blessing?

Not all multi-asset strategies are equal. In this article Iain Cunningham, Co-head of the Multi-Asset Growth capability sets out why flexibility, when used correctly, can be a powerful tool in multi-asset portfolio management.

A game-changing response to the challenge of climate change

The oddly named Inflation Reduction Act introduces a raft of far-reaching measures that will support the energy industry in the US for at least a decade to come. This has positive implications for investors.

New walls and broken bridges

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness have important consequences for global markets. These consequences may not be as predictable as some would imagine.

Investing in an inflationary world

Inflation is higher than many investors have experienced in their lifetimes. Should they run for the hills or bunker down? Ninety One brought together its portfolio managers and other experts to discuss the options.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Has inflation peaked?

Inflation has soared to multi-decade highs in several key economies, ringing central bankers’ alarm bells and unsettling the global investment community. But has inflation peaked? And if so how will the custodians of the price of money respond?

10 minutes

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

General risks

Multi-Asset – latest insights

Forget February, focus on March

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2023

Reset creates opportunities

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

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