Inflation – ‘sticky’ for longer?

Quarter two in review

It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.

Five reasons natural resources equities could fuel your portfolio

We see five compelling reasons for investors to revisit natural resources equities.

May in review

May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.

Credit spotlight: Structured credit

Analyst Rondeep Barua and Portfolio Specialist Jared Cook explain what structured credit (specifically, the collateralised loan obligation market) is, and consider how credit investors can benefit from its distinct and dynamic behaviour.

Trump - It may be possible to achieve higher tariffs and a weaker US dollar

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses the implications of trade policy, examining how and why tariffs are expected to play a central role in Trump’s push for US reindustrialisation and a more equitable global trade system.

October in review

October was a volatile month for global markets for various reasons, but the key common factor throughout was the upcoming US elections, and the general appetite for risk eroded as the event drew closer. By month-end, most markets were down, in US dollars.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Notes from the road - Why investors should take heart from a ‘sober’ gold-sector gathering

Gold is at record highs. Yet attendance at the biggest annual gold-industry conference was well below average and the mood was subdued. This says something useful about the mindset in the gold sector – and what investors can expect from here.

Macroscope: US yield curve dis-inversion: what does it mean and how to trade it

Alex Holroyd-Jones, portfolio manager in the Multi-Asset team, discusses whether the current US yield curve is a predictor of an upcoming recession or a stronger outlook, and why it should continue steepening.

Q3 in review

Despite significant volatility at the start of August, the third quarter of 2024 proved to be a strong one for global markets, across both equities and fixed income. This was driven by several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, cutting interest rates, while US economic data proved to be more resilient than feared. An exception to the trend was oil markets, which saw prices fall over the period.

Bonds back in focus

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen explore the resurgence of bonds as a viable investment class.

August in review

The month began with a sharp selloff in equities due to poor US employment data and a surprise rate hike in Japan, causing turmoil in currency carry trades. However, markets recovered as central bankers in the US and Japan signalled dovish policies, boosting global bonds and equities on expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

US election | how a Trump or Harris victory will shape markets

The conventions are over, the banners banished, and the balloons have popped. Now Kamala Harris and Donald Trump get serious in the run-up to November 5th. Without picking sides, Philip Saunders analyses this most tight of political struggles and speculates on market reaction to both possible eventualities.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

Too high for too long?

The performance of developed economies and the action of central banks recently caused acute financial market tensions and volatility. What really happened, why, and was it avoidable?

Climate adaptation for the next generation

Financial innovation to manage extreme-weather risk.

11 minutes

July in review

After a positive start to July, market sentiment soured as the month progressed on renewed China fears and some underwhelming ‘Big Tech’ earnings. Developed market equities outperformed emerging market stocks, with the latter dragged down by China. In the US, small-caps outperformed their large-cap counterparts. From a regional perspective, the UK was one of the few bright spots.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Quarter two in review

It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.

Five reasons natural resources equities could fuel your portfolio

We see five compelling reasons for investors to revisit natural resources equities.

May in review

May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.

Credit spotlight: Structured credit

Analyst Rondeep Barua and Portfolio Specialist Jared Cook explain what structured credit (specifically, the collateralised loan obligation market) is, and consider how credit investors can benefit from its distinct and dynamic behaviour.

Trump - It may be possible to achieve higher tariffs and a weaker US dollar

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses the implications of trade policy, examining how and why tariffs are expected to play a central role in Trump’s push for US reindustrialisation and a more equitable global trade system.

October in review

October was a volatile month for global markets for various reasons, but the key common factor throughout was the upcoming US elections, and the general appetite for risk eroded as the event drew closer. By month-end, most markets were down, in US dollars.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - September 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to September. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, key thematic issues, and underlying asset classes, exploring how they may be affected by current market factors.

Capital Market Assumptions - October 2024

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Notes from the road - Why investors should take heart from a ‘sober’ gold-sector gathering

Gold is at record highs. Yet attendance at the biggest annual gold-industry conference was well below average and the mood was subdued. This says something useful about the mindset in the gold sector – and what investors can expect from here.

Macroscope: US yield curve dis-inversion: what does it mean and how to trade it

Alex Holroyd-Jones, portfolio manager in the Multi-Asset team, discusses whether the current US yield curve is a predictor of an upcoming recession or a stronger outlook, and why it should continue steepening.

Q3 in review

Despite significant volatility at the start of August, the third quarter of 2024 proved to be a strong one for global markets, across both equities and fixed income. This was driven by several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, cutting interest rates, while US economic data proved to be more resilient than feared. An exception to the trend was oil markets, which saw prices fall over the period.

Bonds back in focus

Ellie Clapton and Jason Borbora-Sheen explore the resurgence of bonds as a viable investment class.

August in review

The month began with a sharp selloff in equities due to poor US employment data and a surprise rate hike in Japan, causing turmoil in currency carry trades. However, markets recovered as central bankers in the US and Japan signalled dovish policies, boosting global bonds and equities on expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

US election | how a Trump or Harris victory will shape markets

The conventions are over, the banners banished, and the balloons have popped. Now Kamala Harris and Donald Trump get serious in the run-up to November 5th. Without picking sides, Philip Saunders analyses this most tight of political struggles and speculates on market reaction to both possible eventualities.

Has inflation bottomed?

Inflation in the UK has ticked up, while in the US it has edged lower. Though some may see this as a halt in inflation's decline, Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, even suggesting continued disinflation is possible. Central bank reactions remain a key focus for market participants, and all eyes will be on the US Fed come 18 September.

Too high for too long?

The performance of developed economies and the action of central banks recently caused acute financial market tensions and volatility. What really happened, why, and was it avoidable?

Climate adaptation for the next generation

Financial innovation to manage extreme-weather risk.

11 minutes

July in review

After a positive start to July, market sentiment soured as the month progressed on renewed China fears and some underwhelming ‘Big Tech’ earnings. Developed market equities outperformed emerging market stocks, with the latter dragged down by China. In the US, small-caps outperformed their large-cap counterparts. From a regional perspective, the UK was one of the few bright spots.

Multi Asset Strategy Quarterly - June 2024

The MA Quarterly for the three months to June. The multi-asset team provides high level comment on the macro-economic environment, various thematic issues, the Strategy itself, underlying asset classes and how they have been, and may be, affected by various factors.

Gold a key hedge for Trump 2.0

Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth, discusses why structural trends, growing US fiscal risk and the increasing prospect of Trump 2.0 could provide tailwinds for the price of gold in the coming years.

Quarter two in review

It was a mixed second quarter for capital markets, with various election results driving up volatility. In the US, another strong run for AI-related tech stocks helped lift equity indices. In Europe, the ECB joined the growing list of G10 banks to start cutting rates; while in France, the announcement of a snap election weighed on sentiment.

Five reasons natural resources equities could fuel your portfolio

We see five compelling reasons for investors to revisit natural resources equities.

May in review

May was a more upbeat month for capital markets, with most asset classes recovering from the losses of April. Although markets were more challenged towards the end of the month as global inflation data proved stickier than expected, overall investors grew more confident that rate cuts would still happen this year.

Credit spotlight: Structured credit

Analyst Rondeep Barua and Portfolio Specialist Jared Cook explain what structured credit (specifically, the collateralised loan obligation market) is, and consider how credit investors can benefit from its distinct and dynamic behaviour.