This edition includes:
- Market background
- Top-down views and outlook for the asset class
- Focus article: Key takeaways from IMF/World Bank meetings
- Regional highlights and corporate credit market review
Our EM debt experts summarise market developments across the sovereign debt universe in October and outline what’s taken place in the EM corporate credit market.
The fast view
The challenges facing EM fixed income of high inflation, tighter monetary policy and geopolitics remained front-of-mind for investors. In the US, inflation surprised on the upside and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.05%.
In Egypt, the IMF approved a US$3 billion Extended Fund Facility program. The country also moved to a flexible exchange rate regime. In Ghana, domestic challenges accelerated, with the currency coming under significant pressure from a combination of local dollarisation and portfolio outflows.
The overarching themes from China’s 20th Party Congress were policy continuity and Xi Jinping cementing his control of party structures. The US administration issued a ban on the transfer of US semiconductor technology to China. Several central banks tightened monetary policy.
Brazil’s left-leaning former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (‘Lula’) won the presidential election, beating right-wing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by a small margin. Chile’s central bank’s efforts to reduce inflation and slow down the economy began to bite. Ecuador’s president announced a potential hard currency bond buy-back, which sparked a bond market rally.
Central and Eastern Europe
Inflationary momentum accelerated across the region, even in the Czech Republic, where there had been some more encouraging signs. Hungary’s central bank was forced into an emergency rate hike due to the acute sell-off in the forint.
Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
Russia increased its military activity targeting civilian infrastructure over the month, as it struggled to make gains on the battlefield. In Turkey, the central bank cut rates by another 150bps, despite inflation being well over 80%. In South Africa, year-on-year inflation fell for the second month in a row.
EM corporate debt highlights
The macro backdrop continued to weigh on bond prices. Spreads widened, particularly in Asia, as China’s zero-COVID approach weighed on China, Hong Kong and Macao, and a lack of a material change in narrative from China’s 20th Party Congress disappointed some market participants.
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Specific risks. Emerging market: These markets carry a higher risk of financial loss than more developed markets as they may have less developed legal, political, economic or other systems.