Emerging Market Debt Indicator July 2021

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The fast view

Market Background

• In a more subdued month, the JP Morgan EMBI rose by 0.4%, while the ongoing strength of the US dollar relative to EMFX weighed on the JP Morgan GBI-EM (overall index return: -0.4%).
• US Treasury yields continued their decline, and concerns persisted around the economic impact of the spread of the Delta COVID variant.

Africa

• Egypt’s fiscal data continues to be strong, with the government achieving a 1.4% primary surplus in FY20/21.
• In Zambia, the trade balance remained in significant surplus as high copper prices continued to support exports. Foreign capital inflows into the local bond market, combined with expectations of higher reserves after the IMF SDR allocation, boosted FX.

Asia

• PMI data across the region moderated from the previous month, and the COVID situation is weighing on some economies, particularly in ASEAN countries.
• China’s activity data generally beat expectations, and GDP growth was in line with expectations. An unexpected cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) signalled a loosening of monetary policy. But regulatory tightening in the tech, education and property sectors created some turmoil in markets.

Latin America

• The COVID picture is generally improving, with cases falling rapidly, particularly in Brazil and Colombia.
• The busy political agenda had mixed results. In the primary elections in Chile, the more moderate candidates from both the left and right wing parties won. But Peru’s political landscape is increasingly uncertain and complex.

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

• Leading indicators continue to point to robust growth across the region as economies progress out of their respective COVID restrictions.
• Poland and Hungary both made headlines over legal disputes with the EU.

Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)

• We continue to see monetary policy tightening across the region in general, with Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan raising interest rates.
• On COVID, the Delta variant continues to drive case growth, particularly in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey.