Capital Markets Assumptions

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Are we on the verge of an inflation regime change?

Inflation is higher than most of us can remember. But will it persist, or revert back to the lower levels we have become accustomed to for the past 40 years? Portfolio Managers Alex Holroyd-Jones and Jason Borbora-Sheen, explain why the answer entirely depends on the upcoming actions of central banks.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

The diverging dollar bloc

Dollar block economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada are facing structural headwinds to growth and inflation, with potentially negative implications for their currencies. This is likely to lead to policy divergence between the US and these dollar bloc economies over the next 6-12 months. In this article, Iain Cunningham and Rebecca Phillips discuss why they moved short these currencies versus the US dollar as a result.

As inflation continues to remain stubbornly hot, central banks are scrambling to cool it down

The Fed and the Bank of England have both raised rates while warning of more to come. Russell Silberston analyses the economic and market implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Predictions of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been debunked as the greenback soars to double-decade highs. The implications are far reaching for the global economy, but also for portfolio construction. Philip Saunders analyses the current environment.

Flexible asset allocation: a curse or blessing?

Not all multi-asset strategies are equal. In this article Iain Cunningham, Co-head of the Multi-Asset Growth capability sets out why flexibility, when used correctly, can be a powerful tool in multi-asset portfolio management.

Sustainability commitments are changing how we invest

The sustainability commitments of last year have been turned on their heads as Europe grapples with an unprecedented energy crisis. But this will not derail the road to 2030. Asset owners are increasingly aware of climate risks, among other social, environmental and governance risks and are asserting their right to be heard.

New walls and broken bridges

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness have important consequences for global markets. These consequences may not be as predictable as some would imagine.

It’s all about inflation

Ninety One’s Investment Institute has flagged inflation as the single most important issue occupying the minds of strategists, currently.

Investing in an inflationary world

Inflation is higher than many investors have experienced in their lifetimes. Should they run for the hills or bunker down? Ninety One brought together its portfolio managers and other experts to discuss the options.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Are we on the verge of an inflation regime change?

Inflation is higher than most of us can remember. But will it persist, or revert back to the lower levels we have become accustomed to for the past 40 years? Portfolio Managers Alex Holroyd-Jones and Jason Borbora-Sheen, explain why the answer entirely depends on the upcoming actions of central banks.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Reset creates opportunities

Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

In this edition Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks provide insight into how 2022’s triple challenges of slowing Chinese growth, sticky inflation, and market valuations have evolved. We share insights gleaned from renowned China scholar Eyck Freymann on China’s climate paradox, and our strategist Russell Silbertson discusses central banks’ aggressive steps to curb inflation. We close with a summary of our asset class views.

UK markets – what can history teach us?

Britain is facing an economic and socio-economic crisis brought about by global events, but also of its own making. Investment Strategist Russell Silberston expertly analyses the situation, leaning on his 40-year career to see what lessons we can take from the past. Interview recorded on 28th September 2022.

The diverging dollar bloc

Dollar block economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada are facing structural headwinds to growth and inflation, with potentially negative implications for their currencies. This is likely to lead to policy divergence between the US and these dollar bloc economies over the next 6-12 months. In this article, Iain Cunningham and Rebecca Phillips discuss why they moved short these currencies versus the US dollar as a result.

As inflation continues to remain stubbornly hot, central banks are scrambling to cool it down

The Fed and the Bank of England have both raised rates while warning of more to come. Russell Silberston analyses the economic and market implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Predictions debunked, Greenback soars, what are the implications for the global economy?

Predictions of the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been debunked as the greenback soars to double-decade highs. The implications are far reaching for the global economy, but also for portfolio construction. Philip Saunders analyses the current environment.

Flexible asset allocation: a curse or blessing?

Not all multi-asset strategies are equal. In this article Iain Cunningham, Co-head of the Multi-Asset Growth capability sets out why flexibility, when used correctly, can be a powerful tool in multi-asset portfolio management.

Sustainability commitments are changing how we invest

The sustainability commitments of last year have been turned on their heads as Europe grapples with an unprecedented energy crisis. But this will not derail the road to 2030. Asset owners are increasingly aware of climate risks, among other social, environmental and governance risks and are asserting their right to be heard.

New walls and broken bridges

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness have important consequences for global markets. These consequences may not be as predictable as some would imagine.

It’s all about inflation

Ninety One’s Investment Institute has flagged inflation as the single most important issue occupying the minds of strategists, currently.

Investing in an inflationary world

Inflation is higher than many investors have experienced in their lifetimes. Should they run for the hills or bunker down? Ninety One brought together its portfolio managers and other experts to discuss the options.

Neutral matters

For something that cannot be directly observed, and changes through time, the neutral level of interest rates generates an awful lot of debate, says Strategist Russell Silberston.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

The Fed hikes, but what lies ahead?

The Fed, as expected, raised US interest rates by 75 basis points.  The accompanying news conference, however, was the main focus of market participants, and in the short term they liked it as many risk assets jumped. But what of the future? John Stopford, Head of Multi-Asset Income discusses the implications in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – July 2022

In this edition, Iain Cunningham and Michael Spinks explain how the three challenges they anticipated heading into 2022 have evolved. Russell Silberston assesses the energy transition’s complex relationship with inflation, before reviewing the policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Are we on the verge of an inflation regime change?

Inflation is higher than most of us can remember. But will it persist, or revert back to the lower levels we have become accustomed to for the past 40 years? Portfolio Managers Alex Holroyd-Jones and Jason Borbora-Sheen, explain why the answer entirely depends on the upcoming actions of central banks.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Sahil Mahtani

Marc Abrahams

Daniel Morgan

More about Capital Market Assumptions

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Sahil Mahtani

Strategist, Investment Institute

Marc Abrahams

Head of Multi-Asset Quantitative Analysis

Daniel Morgan

Analyst, Multi-Asset

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Reset creates opportunities

Tactical opportunities, but caution is the watchword

Capital market assumptions - September 2022

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – October 2022

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