Capital Markets Assumptions

Tiger, tiger!

What investors can expect in the Chinese New Year.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2022

In this edition, Philip Saunders explores the possible challenges that markets may face as central banks return to conventional monetary policy, while Deirdre Cooper assesses the engagement of the private sector in helping address externalities at November’s COP26. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Winds of change are blowing on financial markets

After years of falling interest rates and central banks’ stimulus, suddenly the winds of change are blowing. The taps are being turned off, and money is set to become more expensive. Russell Silberston, Investment Strategist, examines the implications for financial markets.

11 minutes

The Chinese policy pivot

2021 was used as a “window of opportunity” for Chinese policy makers to address structural imbalances within the Chinese economy. However, with growth now slowing, authorities have pivoted. That opens the door for easing, in our view.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Why are the fundamentals behind short term movements so crucial?

Short-term market movements are rightly brushed aside by long-term investors, but the fundamentals behind those movements are crucial if they persist and short term becomes longer term. Philip Saunders, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth discusses the set of circumstances causing such concern in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

South Korean rates – an opportunity presented by the global rates sell off

Government bonds have not had a pretty year so far. But stress can bring opportunity. The Multi-Asset team believes that South Korean rates could be one such opportunity over a medium-term horizon.

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Sustainable investing needs to evolve. Fast

The leading businesses of tomorrow will be those that create value for all of their stakeholders. To identify them, sustainable investment approaches need to be re-engineered. Three of Ninety One’s portfolio managers explain how.

What Ukraine means for energy markets and the net-zero transition

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered the largest structural shift in global energy markets for decades. This seismic change coincides with a key phase in the transition away from fossil fuels. Tom Nelson discusses why the conflict will force policymakers, regulators, and consumers to expedite the energy transition – with impacts on many commodity-linked sectors.

Central banks have awoken

Suddenly central banks worldwide have awoken. Rates are rising and investors are contemplating the consequences. Russell Silberston describes the present and potential future environment in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Time to get our houses in order for the energy transition

With the global construction industry accounting for almost 40% of total energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, tackling climate change clearly needs to start at home. That presents big opportunities for companies supplying products and services that make the built environment more energy efficient.

Selling in May?

Risk assets can be sensitive to the downside, but yet remain at elevated levels. As we approach May with what some see as the perfect storm, should investors sell in May, take protection, or target sectors that might be resilient? John Stopford discusses.

Is central bank tightening priced in?

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2022

In this edition, Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called 'hard assets' during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, while Philip Saunders discusses the dramatic policy shift towards defence and energy spending in Europe. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Raising interest rates! What is the prediction for the future?

With the focus in recent weeks on Russia and Ukraine, interest rates were seemingly a sideshow. But they came into sharp focus when The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates within hours of each other, as predicted. But what is the prediction for the future? Investment Strategist Russell Silberston explains.

What’s driving gold?

With gold back in the headlines, George Cheveley returning from the BMO Mining Conference, gives his views on what will be driving gold in 2022.

Transition-makers: Capturing new dynamics in commodity markets

Efforts to tackle climate change are driving powerful trends in markets for many natural resources, from metals to fossil fuels – and in the equities of companies that produce them. That’s creating new opportunities for investors.

Tiger, tiger!

What investors can expect in the Chinese New Year.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2022

In this edition, Philip Saunders explores the possible challenges that markets may face as central banks return to conventional monetary policy, while Deirdre Cooper assesses the engagement of the private sector in helping address externalities at November’s COP26. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Winds of change are blowing on financial markets

After years of falling interest rates and central banks’ stimulus, suddenly the winds of change are blowing. The taps are being turned off, and money is set to become more expensive. Russell Silberston, Investment Strategist, examines the implications for financial markets.

11 minutes

The Chinese policy pivot

2021 was used as a “window of opportunity” for Chinese policy makers to address structural imbalances within the Chinese economy. However, with growth now slowing, authorities have pivoted. That opens the door for easing, in our view.

Inflation: What it means for investors

The era of low inflation has come to an end, with many countries experiencing the sharpest increase in prices in decades. Soaring demand following COVID, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to this shock. But what does it mean for investors? Here you can read the views of Ninety One’s portfolio managers across asset classes. We update these pages regularly.

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Markets have corrected, but are they still expensive? Analysts Daniel Morgan and Marc Abrahams explain how Ninety One’s Multi-Asset team uses its 10-year capital market assumptions model to better inform their investment allocations.

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Three central banks have recently raised interest rates in response to rampant inflation. Leading the pack was the US Federal Reserve, delivering the biggest rise of 75 basis points. The Swiss National Bank weighed in with a 50 basis point increase and bringing up the rear was the Bank of England, lifting rates by 25 basis points. Strategist Russell Silberston discusses if they’ve left it too late, what market participants think, and explains his strategy in the light of the current volatility.

Why are the fundamentals behind short term movements so crucial?

Short-term market movements are rightly brushed aside by long-term investors, but the fundamentals behind those movements are crucial if they persist and short term becomes longer term. Philip Saunders, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth discusses the set of circumstances causing such concern in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

South Korean rates – an opportunity presented by the global rates sell off

Government bonds have not had a pretty year so far. But stress can bring opportunity. The Multi-Asset team believes that South Korean rates could be one such opportunity over a medium-term horizon.

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Ninety One’s Capital Market Assumptions framework focuses on the key drivers of long-term performance. We do this to better understand possible future returns, enriching discussions with our clients.

Sustainable investing needs to evolve. Fast

The leading businesses of tomorrow will be those that create value for all of their stakeholders. To identify them, sustainable investment approaches need to be re-engineered. Three of Ninety One’s portfolio managers explain how.

What Ukraine means for energy markets and the net-zero transition

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered the largest structural shift in global energy markets for decades. This seismic change coincides with a key phase in the transition away from fossil fuels. Tom Nelson discusses why the conflict will force policymakers, regulators, and consumers to expedite the energy transition – with impacts on many commodity-linked sectors.

Central banks have awoken

Suddenly central banks worldwide have awoken. Rates are rising and investors are contemplating the consequences. Russell Silberston describes the present and potential future environment in conversation with Lindsay Williams.

Time to get our houses in order for the energy transition

With the global construction industry accounting for almost 40% of total energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, tackling climate change clearly needs to start at home. That presents big opportunities for companies supplying products and services that make the built environment more energy efficient.

Selling in May?

Risk assets can be sensitive to the downside, but yet remain at elevated levels. As we approach May with what some see as the perfect storm, should investors sell in May, take protection, or target sectors that might be resilient? John Stopford discusses.

Is central bank tightening priced in?

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has gained about 130 basis points, the largest rise since the 1990s. So, is the full extent of Fed policy tightening now “in the price”? Portfolio Manager, Iain Cunningham doesn’t think so and explains why yields may rise further.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – April 2022

In this edition, Sahil Mahtani explains why the mantra of investing in so-called 'hard assets' during inflationary environments has a number of pitfalls, while Philip Saunders discusses the dramatic policy shift towards defence and energy spending in Europe. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Raising interest rates! What is the prediction for the future?

With the focus in recent weeks on Russia and Ukraine, interest rates were seemingly a sideshow. But they came into sharp focus when The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates within hours of each other, as predicted. But what is the prediction for the future? Investment Strategist Russell Silberston explains.

What’s driving gold?

With gold back in the headlines, George Cheveley returning from the BMO Mining Conference, gives his views on what will be driving gold in 2022.

Transition-makers: Capturing new dynamics in commodity markets

Efforts to tackle climate change are driving powerful trends in markets for many natural resources, from metals to fossil fuels – and in the equities of companies that produce them. That’s creating new opportunities for investors.

Tiger, tiger!

What investors can expect in the Chinese New Year.

Multi-Asset Strategy Quarterly – January 2022

In this edition, Philip Saunders explores the possible challenges that markets may face as central banks return to conventional monetary policy, while Deirdre Cooper assesses the engagement of the private sector in helping address externalities at November’s COP26. Russell Silberston reviews recent policy announcements by the major central banks, and we close with a summary of our asset class views.

Winds of change are blowing on financial markets

After years of falling interest rates and central banks’ stimulus, suddenly the winds of change are blowing. The taps are being turned off, and money is set to become more expensive. Russell Silberston, Investment Strategist, examines the implications for financial markets.

11 minutes

The Chinese policy pivot

2021 was used as a “window of opportunity” for Chinese policy makers to address structural imbalances within the Chinese economy. However, with growth now slowing, authorities have pivoted. That opens the door for easing, in our view.

Capital Markets Assumptions

Sahil Mahtani

Marc Abrahams

Daniel Morgan

More about Capital Market Assumptions

Capital market assumptions - March 2022

Sahil Mahtani

Strategist, Investment Institute

Marc Abrahams

Head of Multi-Asset Quantitative Analysis

Daniel Morgan

Analyst, Multi-Asset

Multi-Asset - latest insights

Inflation: What it means for investors

A correction doesn’t mean markets are cheap

Is it too late for central banks to raise interest rates?

Why are the fundamentals behind short term movements so crucial?

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