Emerging perspectives

Emerging Market Debt Indicator September 2021

This month, we examine recent developments in Ukraine in the context of a potential IMF deal. As always, we also summarise recent developments across the EM debt universe and share our outlook.

Oct 14, 2021

20 minutes

EMD Team
This month, we examine recent developments in Ukraine in the context of a potential IMF deal. As always, we also summarise recent developments across the EM debt universe and share our outlook.

This edition includes:

  • Market background
  • Top-down views and outlook for the asset class
  • Insights from the team:
    Ukraine inches towards IMF disbursements
    Last year, Ukraine’s IMF programme seemed in jeopardy, but recent developments have nudged things back on course. We look at what has changed and why investors should care.
  • Regional highlights
    Our EM Debt experts summarise September’s market developments across the EM sovereign debt universe.


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The fast view

Market Background

  • The paring back of monetary policy support, coupled with inflation concerns, weighed on sentiment.
  • Most EM currencies weakened vs. the US dollar, given the risk-off sentiment shift.

Africa

  • Zambia’s new president is making various market-friendly moves; an IMF deal is back on the radar.
  • A rebound in exports in Egypt, but the US is holding back military support on human rights concerns.

Asia

  • More positive COVID-19 dynamics as vaccine programmes take off.
  • Concerns over implications of credit events in China real estate weigh on Asia’s bond markets.

Latin America

  • Higher inflation, interest rate hikes and more hawkish central banks.
  • China property market turmoil weighing on commodity exporters.

Central and Eastern Europe

  • Further escalation in rule-of-law clash between Poland and the EU.
  • Rate hikes in Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic.

Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)

  • Rate cut and more dovish rhetoric from Turkish central bank leads to lira sell-off.
  • Ukraine continues to progress towards an IMF disbursement.

Specific risks
Emerging market: These markets carry a higher risk of financial loss than more developed markets as they may have less developed legal, political, economic or other systems.

General risks
All investments carry the risk of capital loss. The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise and will be affected by changes in interest rates, currency fluctuations, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to the assets in which the investment strategy invests. If any currency differs from the investor’s home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Authored by

EMD Team

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Important Information

This communication is provided for general information only should not be construed as advice.

All the information in is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. The views are those of the contributor at the time of publication and do not necessary reflect those of Ninety One.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

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