Road to 2030

Road to 2030 is very much about the structural horizon. It is squarely focused on identifying multi-year structural tailwinds. The purpose of the research is to develop a medium-term roadmap where we identify themes that run through the global economy on a multi-year horizon.

From an investment perspective, we then assess these themes over two time frames, a structural and a cyclical horizon. We invest in structural tailwinds on a multi-year timescale by accumulating favourable structural allocations when they are cyclically out of favour and reducing those allocations when they are at cyclical peaks.

In the first Road to 2030 project, we articulated three broad reasons to take a thematic approach:

• A thematic approach identifies structural themes and imbalances that influence the global economy and asset markets on a multi-year horizon. A clear understanding of those key tailwinds and headwinds can provide a valuable analytical advantage and inform longer run strategic preferences and aversions.​
• Themes cut through traditional indices and specialisations by region, sector, or market capitalisation, and allow investors to think outside of traditional groupings.
• Themes help you think as decision makers think. An understanding of structural themes enhances individual security selection decisions and a better understanding of the growth drivers in different investment theses. This allows you to see the wood for the trees and reduces myopia.

Over the next 12 months we will be updating the key headwinds and tailwinds impacting each of the five mega themes of Road to 2030. Starting with the Rise of China. You can visit the original Road to 2030 research on the following links.

Thematic investors are unlikely to do well if they think of their job as predicting the future. It is more helpful, as Peter Drucker pointed out, to try to understand the “future that has already happened.” This refers to decisions already taken that will have an impact in the future.

The process by which we conducted our initial 2030 project was via a series of roundtables across our internal and external networks. These surfaced themes in all their complexity, allowed us to frame these themes in a way that helped us structure that complexity, and to gain conviction in taking risk against key headwinds and tailwinds.

The project was developed around a mindmap articulating primary, secondary, and tertiary themes (a disaggregation of complexity), a horizon-scanning exercise comprised of hundreds of charts investigating key headwinds and tailwinds, as well as a set of scenarios articulating possible futures (a re-aggregation of that complexity).

The five primary thematic drivers were recognised as the Rise of China, Decarbonisation, Technological Disruption, Debt and Demographics. There were 16 secondary themes and around 50 tertiary themes first published in 2020.