Chapters
Market observations
Growth holds steady with upside risks as liquidity eases
The tariff picture continues to evolve, with persistent uncertainty and the ongoing impact of higher trade costs keeping the risk of a stagflationary scenario in the US relatively elevated. Despite these headwinds, US economic data remains buoyant and inflation pressure benign with strong disinflationary forces from housing continuing to support progress. The latest tax bill, deregulation and a return to easing and a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve is likely to provide further support for economic growth as we move through the rest of the year and into 2026. Recession risks remain elevated, however, with the full impact of the Trump administration’s policies (tariffs, immigration, DOGE etc.) still unclear and the labour market in balance. As a result of these dynamics, we expect some ongoing volatility in the price of US risk assets in the near-term, with upside risks as liquidity conditions are eased.
Figure 1: US core CPI
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Figure 2: US PMI
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Easing policy supports Europe’s recovery and reflation prospects
In Europe, monetary policy has been eased with policy rates now at neutral levels. This is supporting an emerging economic recovery and a new credit cycle. The headwinds from the recent tariff announcements are expected to impact growth in the coming quarters, albeit less so than previously feared, while the latest budget proposals in Germany and across Europe to increase defence spending are expected to provide ongoing support to economic growth. A lagging policy reaction function from the ECB in the coming quarters increases the prospects for a reflationary environment in the region later this year, creating the potential for an ongoing supportive environment for European currencies and risk assets, outside of the tariff reescalation scenario.
Figure 3: Euro core CPI
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Figure 4: Euro PMI
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Easing gathers pace as China pivots toward domestic demand
In China, easing measures are becoming progressively more forceful, with a pivot in policy toward prioritising domestic consumption as a driver of growth. Chinese authorities have released a ‘special action plan’ outlining a broad set of measures that will be implemented in seeking to transition away from the recent driver of growth, being high-value-added industry and exports, towards domestic consumption, driven by the step up in trade conflict. The introduction of ‘anti-involution’ policies has renewed hopes of an end to deflation and a recovery in nominal earnings.
While we continue to expect policymakers to take the necessary steps to ensure a sustained recovery in consumption, in the near-term, domestic risk assets have repriced considerably and a renewed weakening in the property sector adds headwinds to consumption suggesting limited asymmetry.
Figure 5: China inflation
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Figure 6: China PMI
Source: Ninety One, September 2025
Staying nimble as easing takes hold
As a result of our central investment roadmap, as discussed above, we continue to believe that risk assets will remain supported by easing fiscal and monetary conditions, albeit with volatility given elevated risks to US growth. The potential easing in liquidity conditions by key central banks adds to support for risk assets, particularly as uncertainty wanes. In fixed income, a healthy exposure to defensive government bonds remains, given potential downside risks and a lack of value in credit markets. This provides us with dry powder to capitalise on any episodes of volatility in financial markets. In the currency market, we continue to monitor the US dollar for opportunities to add to short positions, given the potential economic divergence between the US and the rest of the world.
