Emerging perspectives

Emerging Market Debt Indicator November 2021

Find out what Chile’s first-round presidential election result means for investors, and – as always – read about recent developments across the EM sovereign debt universe and our outlook.

6 Dec 2021

18 minutes

EMD Team

This edition includes:

  • Market background
  • Top-down views and outlook for the asset class
  • Insights from the team:
    Chilean politics and beyond: key considerations for investors
    Hear from our expert on Latin America, Nicolas Jaquier, on what Chile’s first-round presidential election result means for investors, and read Nicolas’ summary of the fiscal, monetary and ESG dynamics in the country.
  • Regional highlights
    Read our EM debt team’s overview of November’s market developments across the EM sovereign debt universe.


Download the PDF

The fast view

Market background
It was a weaker month for EM fixed income and currency markets. Rising inflation pushed up US Treasury yields before they reversed course after news broke of the Omicron COVID variant, with similar sharp shifts happening across financial markets.

Africa
Egypt responded to concerns over further dollar bond issuance by securing external funding, including US$3 billion in bank loans to fund ESG projects. In Kenya, tourism has been slowly improving, remittances are at record levels, and the economy has rebounded strongly as lockdowns have eased.

Asia
Most of the region continues to embrace a ‘living with the virus’ approach to COVID-19, but China, Hong Kong and Taiwan continue to adopt a zero-tolerance approach. Inflation has risen slightly in the region but remains relatively benign. High vaccination rates have lifted Singapore’s growth outlook.

Latin America
Central banks in the region continue to react to inflation, but it may be close to peaking in some countries. Investors welcomed election results in Chile and Argentina, but the appointment of a relatively unknown candidate as central bank governor in Mexico weighed on sentiment.

Central and Eastern Europe
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic all aggressively hiked interest rates during the month. Poland’s national bank surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected rate rise, leading to a sell-off in the country’s local currency bonds.

Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
The Turkish central bank announced a further interest rate cut, causing the lira to sell off. Elsewhere, tensions between Russia and neighbouring Ukraine intensified during the month, and Omicron variant news weighed on South African assets.

Authored by

EMD Team

Important Information

The information may discuss general market activity or industry trends and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The economic and market views presented herein reflect Ninety One’s judgment as at the date shown and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that views and opinions expressed will be correct and may not reflect those of Ninety One as a whole, different views may be expressed based on different investment objectives. Although we believe any information obtained from external sources to be reliable, we have not independently verified it, and we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Ninety One’s internal data may not be audited. Ninety One does not provide legal or tax advice. Prospective investors should consult their tax advisors before making tax-related investment decisions.

This communication is provided for general information only and is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it constitute an offer for sale. Investment involves risks. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular security. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past, or that significant losses will be avoided. The securities or investment products mentioned in this document may not have been registered in any jurisdiction.

In Hong Kong, this communication is issued by Ninety One Hong Kong Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).

Except as otherwise authorised, this information may not be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any third party without Ninety One’s prior written consent. © 2021 Ninety One. All rights reserved.

Past performance figures shown are not indicative of future performance. Investors are reminded that investment involves risk. Investors should refer to the offering documents for details, including risk factors. This website has not been reviewed by the SFC. 

By clicking on the hyperlink of Investor relations below, you are leaving this website with information specific for retail investors in Hong Kong and entering the global website.

Please note that the global website is not intended to target Hong Kong investors. It has not been reviewed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”). The website may contain information on funds and other investments products that are not authorised by the SFC and therefore are not available to retail investors in Hong Kong. The website may also contain information on investment services / strategies that are purported to be carried out by a Ninety One group company outside of Hong Kong.

Any product documents and information contained in this website are for reference only and for those persons or entities in any jurisdictions or country where the information and use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation.

Issuer: Ninety One Hong Kong Limited
Email: [email protected] 
Telephone: (852) 2861 6888 
Fax: (852) 2861 6861