Emerging perspectives

Emerging Market Debt Indicator October 2021

This month, we summarise the key takeaways from the latest IMF World Economic Outlook in terms of growth and fiscal forecasts for EM economies. As always, we also summarise recent developments across the EM debt universe and share our outlook.

Nov 10, 2021

18 minutes

EMD Team
This month, we summarise the key takeaways from the latest IMF World Economic Outlook in terms of growth and fiscal forecasts for EM economies. As always, we also summarise recent developments across the EM debt universe and share our outlook.

This edition includes:

  • Market background
  • Top-down views and outlook for the asset class
  • Insights from the team:
    Key takeaways from IMF World Economic Outlook
    The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF paints a broadly positive picture of the growth outlook for EM economies, with a significant number seeing their growth forecasts upgraded for next year. We summarise the key takeaways.
  • Regional highlights
    Our EM Debt experts summarise October’s market developments across the EM sovereign debt universe.


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The fast view

Market Background

  • The key theme in October was widespread concern around the persistence of inflation. Volatility in the US Treasury market continued.
  • The economic growth rebound continued in developed markets and governments eased some of the COVID-related restrictions that have held back some emerging markets.

Africa

  • Both the Ivory Coast and Ghana improved their debt balances, helped by a deal with France in the former and a reduction in debt to independent power providers in the latter.
  • In Egypt, fiscal momentum remains positive, while in Zambia the government made progress towards an IMF deal.

Asia

  • Moderate inflation rates and healthy external balances have allowed for accommodative monetary policy in much of the region.
  • The region is generally moving towards a stance of ‘living with COVID-19’, with restrictions eased in some (but not all) countries.

Latin America

  • The main theme in the region was one of high inflation, although momentum around this appears to be fading in some markets.
  • Central banks have raised interest rates more than in other regions, and local bond curves have more rate hikes priced in by the market.

Central and Eastern Europe

  • Inflation continues to rise across the region, with Polish inflation beating consensus expectations for a fourth consecutive month.
  • Central banks remain mostly hawkish, reflecting the inflation backdrop.

Rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)

  • Several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, committed to net-zero targets.
  • In Turkey, monetary policy credibility and political risk remain key themes after a surprisingly large interest rate cut and threat to expel some NATO ambassadors.

Authored by

EMD Team

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